The next telecom and wireless growth wave is overdue

Some say the European telecom sector is in trouble. I say, like many times in the past over five decades, it is simply reaching the end of one chapter, and ready to move to the next. However, we do not yet have the next chapter ready to go. Will the USA learn from Europe in time to fix this problem before it grows?

Telecommunications service providers, handset makers and network builders for services like wireless, telephone, broadband, Internet, cable TV and more have seen strong growth for so many years that many thought growth would last forever.

However, it doesn’t. Never does. We always end one chapter and start the next. So, now that traditional telephone and cable TV is reaching the end of its chapter, what’s the next growth wave and when will it get started?

Warning: rough water with changing growth wave

The industry has never done a good job of managing the slowdown or replacing it with the next growth wave. That being said, these industries have been challenged time and time again, but remain strong.

The problem is the direction often shifts. Plus, some growth-waves are stronger than others. This is business as usual for wireless and telecom.

Want a few examples? Remember when the Apple iPhone and Google Android hit the marketplace almost twenty-years ago? That was at another slowdown period. Previous leaders were Motorola, who missed the pivot from analog to digital in the late 1990s. Or Nokia and Blackberry who rode the next growth wave for a decade until the iPhone and Android were introduced. Today, Motorola, Nokia and Blackberry are no longer leaders in the smartphone market. The leaders are Android and iPhone and the app market with wireless data.

Wireless has grown for roughly 50 years through a series of steps moving from analog to digital, then from 2G to 5G and beyond. Each next step created the next growth wave. One wave took over when the previous one waned. This has happened every time we moved from one wireless generation to the next.

We now have millions of apps, and all customers know all about it. So, to juice the growth wireless carriers gave away these services for free for a few years. It worked. Over a few years users jumped right in, and the app market exploded with growth. Only then, did the marketplace start charging users for their apps and wireless data services.

So, sometimes success can take some time to restructure the marketplace and demand cycle.

Today the wireless industry must create the next growth wave

That’s what the wireless industry needs to do today. They need to develop the next level of wireless products and services to increase user demand. Something exciting. The problem is that has not happened. Not yet anyway. That is where the focus needs to be.

We are seeing some movement like Fixed Wireless Access. FWA is the technology behind using wireless to offer broadband to homes and offices. 5G Wireless Broadband makes sense for the industry. In these early days, there are still issues that need to be solved, however growth is occurring, and I expect that to continue.

However, if you unbalance the playing field, it tends to balance itself again. What I mean is while this may be good for wireless growth, it takes business away from wireline broadband providers like cable TV and telephone companies. I expect these companies and industries to bite back. That means a new competitive battleground is beginning.

And, while this seems to be good for the wireless carriers today, is it really good enough to make up for lost growth in traditional wireless and wireless data service growth?

Private wireless is another area for new growth for the wireless industry. Today, this is a new area being offered on the business services side of the wireless industry.

So, between private wireless and 5G wireless broadband, we have two new areas of wireless services for both the business and the consumer side. Private wireless and 5G wireless home internet are a partial solution, but the industry needs more to continue to grow in order to reward their investors.

What do we have to work with? We know how wireless will empower other technology like AI and how it will transform other industries. That is where the wireless and telecom industry should be looking to start the next growth wave.

Read more: How AI and 5G are impacting every industry