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Is It Already Too Late to Play the Holidays?

By  +Follow November 12, 2013 1:53PM
Tickers Mentioned:

As the holiday season gets underway, investors may be looking to play the retail space as consumers start on their shopping lists. But is has the Consumer Discretionary sector already baked in those prices? We asked Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group for her thoughts here.  

EQ: Last week, the market experienced a significant dip on Thursday after failing to break the all-time high, but seems to have regained its upward direction. Is this a good sign from a technical standpoint?

Turner: Yes, it did move higher on Friday after the big downdraft on Thursday. It held in a very narrow range on Monday, but of course, the bond market was closed. On the daily chart of the S&P 500, last Thursday was a pretty violent move down on increasing volume. I’ve seen those large bearish engulfing candles before in markets that are overstretched, such like this one is. While those big red engulfing candles may not mark the top, it usually indicates that the bears are waking up and coming out of their caves.

EQ: From a fundamental standpoint, the market still seems to be pretty optimistic for the intermediate-to-long-term outlook, but short term, we may be susceptible to a bit of a technical pullback here. Is that normal behavior for a market trading at these levels?

Turner: Yes, it is. Our market moves in cycles, and no price goes straight up forever, or straight down forever either. Sentiment reading show the ratios of bulls to bears topped at 3.5-to-1. That’s the Investors’ Intelligence poll, and typically when ratios get to that level, it has coincided with market pullbacks and corrections. Also, mutual funds are showing a stampede into equities funds and out of bond funds. So it looks like the retail traders are moving back into the market. To me, those are all signals to raise my stops on my long positions.

EQ: Is now a good time to start focusing closely on the retail sector and the ETFs in that space?

Turner: Interestingly enough, the Consumer Discretionary sector thrives during the period of Oct. 28 to April 20. So that’s winter to early spring, and peaks just before the equities markets top out in May. If we look at Consumer Staples, which is also retail, it usually does well from April 23 to Oct. 27. So it’s the opposite of Consumer Discretionary.

As well, a very typical retail sector trade would be to buy retail stocks on Labor Day and then sell them before Thanksgiving. However, if you look at the most popular retailers, their best growth quarter is the fourth quarter. So, I like to hold companies like Macy’s, Inc. (M) or Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) up to their earnings reports that typically come out in January. While I hold up to those reports, em, I don’t always hold through them. I like to play the anticipation more than the reality.

EQ: So the best of breeds in this space have a bit more of a shelf life?

Turner: I find they do. It doesn’t mean it’s always smooth sailing by any stretch, however. Retailers can put out very surprising numbers, especially with same-store sales numbers issued monthly. And, there a re a lot of variables that affect retailers’ numbers, such as the price of gasoline and the weather. So for them, it’s not just about earnings. Still,  Macy’s and Nordstrom are two retailers that I definitely enjoy playing—and I enjoy shopping there too!

EQ: What are some other sectors or industry groups that look interesting to you?

Turner: Right now, I’m watching the regional banks and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ($KRE). It popped up higher on Monday, and does that many times when interest rates rise because that gives regionals banks a bit of a boost. It popped up Friday, and pulled back a bit on Monday. I also be interested in looking at the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF ($KIE). Although it’s made great gains recently, many times insurance companies stand to profit interest rates go higher.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Results for m
Elie Chevignard
23 Aug 14 02:32:47
1 $M per hole! RT @OurielOhayon: They raised 40m$ +…. http://t.co/BgMOgfzlyx
Market News
23 Aug 14 01:31:23
$M: Macy's Expecting Bullish Second Quarter http://t.co/hBPgv8AYgY http://t.co/dSwdsp9LEf
Luke Christensen
23 Aug 14 01:23:10
RT @nzcach: Act Party, Jamie Whyte broadcasting first address from Alan Gibbs' multi $m sculpture farm north of AK. Interesting
Carlos Chambers
23 Aug 14 01:22:46
Act Party, Jamie Whyte broadcasting first address from Alan Gibbs' multi $m sculpture farm north of AK. Interesting
23 Aug 14 00:32:07
#fact: Find the order of $[2]$ in $Bbb Z=mBbb Z$ where $m =... http://t.co/fI2okXeTjU
Colin Macleod
23 Aug 14 00:31:30
Major Players continuing to bust into new highs http://t.co/s2GYaD5vYD $AAPL $QQQ $GILD $GMCR $AKS $X $MS $GPS $LUV $M $DIS
22 Aug 14 23:38:14
@FloydMayweather I would love just 1 of those $M
سيدة اعمال سعودية
22 Aug 14 21:40:11
@HashKSA لو كل واحد منا قال كلمة طيبة في اليوم لتغير حالنا الى الافضل .. $m^
22 Aug 14 20:20:59
RT @Theylovedej_: @kelsnicole8 :) cuz U $m@rt
22 Aug 14 20:17:59
@kelsnicole8 :) cuz U $m@rt
22 Aug 14 17:43:41
@13elieveinsuju but $M kan? Who knows. Hahaha
Hanna Hurley
22 Aug 14 14:39:20
@DennisDill @arneduncan *It has served him very ( $M ) well! And we thought that credentials & degrees matter. Shucks! BS SpinMeister.
Market News Desk
22 Aug 14 14:31:17
$M: Kohl's Rebounds, Clears Buy Point Despite Weak Sales http://t.co/fRcRR3wiEn http://t.co/G0NmoyKsqu
PennyStock Zone
22 Aug 14 14:24:11
Multimillionaire trader SUPERTRADES and his EASY to replicate strategy can make you money! http://t.co/Ho9ydXHTWl $MIDD $VRX $M $RDNT
22 Aug 14 14:00:00
Macy's Insider Tim M. Adams Unloads 18,014 Shares $M http://t.co/mC8wWHSqhb
Maurits van den Berg
22 Aug 14 13:56:07
RT @APPSRUNTHEWORLD: 2013 Cloud HCM rev, $M SAP, 490 ULTI, 334 WDAY, 303 ORCL, 278 IBM, 265 LI, 258 ADP, 199 CSOD, 170 Skillsoft/SumTotal, …
US Banking News
22 Aug 14 13:41:23
Insider Selling: Tim M. Adams Sells 18,014 Shares of Macy's Stock $M http://t.co/bv90CtqMkx
Sleek Money
22 Aug 14 13:41:11
Insider Selling: Tim M. Adams Sells 18,014 Shares of Macy's Stock $M http://t.co/QLoWzssHDT
DayTrading Power
22 Aug 14 13:16:33
daytraded #stocks : $SPXU $DGLY $CRM $PFE $DRL $MRVL $TLM $CRM $BRCD $FOLD $QUNR $M $SCCO $ACHN went 15/18 for +$1175
PennyStock Zone
22 Aug 14 12:52:44
Replicate multimillionaire strategy easy to copy! Subscription is cheap at twice the price! http://t.co/Ho9ydXHTWl $M $XL $MMC $BSMX $SPG
Liberty Marketing
22 Aug 14 12:36:31
RT @FultonSquare: 1955 North Burling #Chicago For Sale by Baird & Warner http://t.co/USnTYTtSzW - Buyers use http://t.co/Cre9qezOWd for $M …
Biz News Pioneer
22 Aug 14 12:31:16
$M: Macy's Stays Optimistic Despite Earnings Miss http://t.co/787xK4uM2d http://t.co/JFYHdEg8GX
22 Aug 14 12:16:25
Macy\'s, Inc.: The stock is testing its highs. $M http://t.co/YWTWQbjuGa http://t.co/ktGqZpODIW
22 Aug 14 12:12:29
PT Chg 8/22: $GALE, $MRVL, $BKD, $CRM, $CRM, $KSS, $LOW, $INTU, $RIG, $M, $GPS, $LB, $CACI, $ROST http://t.co/Fwkhffpb5r
22 Aug 14 11:56:23
@Cosmicwhynot MAINLY, work inst. orders, trade personal P&L, handle several $M exposure in stocks I make a mkt in. Google for more details.
US Banking News
22 Aug 14 11:41:59
Macy's, Inc. $M Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.31 http://t.co/E8Ddf7X1ix
Refined Chicago
22 Aug 14 11:35:14
1955 North Burling #Chicago For Sale by Baird & Warner http://t.co/USnTYTtSzW - Buyers use http://t.co/Cre9qezOWd for $M #RealEstate >>>>
Jason Verive
22 Aug 14 11:35:13
1955 North Burling #Chicago For Sale by Baird & Warner http://t.co/29gJ2Er0aT - Buyers use http://t.co/GoKg7b1XrX for $M #RealEstate >>>>
stop SeaWorld
22 Aug 14 11:23:22
@JLLLOW thats not to say plastic isnt carcinogenic in its leakage, there's $M FDA studies investigating it, just those flawed evidence.
Chris Mitto
22 Aug 14 11:22:09
Turnt as fuck at the performance last night with my $M niggas ✔️ http://t.co/dVIGvTpZpb
US Banking News
22 Aug 14 11:13:01
Macy 's announces quarterly dividend of $0.3125. Payable on 10/1/2014. 2.06% Yield. http://t.co/NSDnt9yBQT $M #M
Eya lovatic
22 Aug 14 11:02:12
I #votedemilovato for the 2014 MTV #VMA Best Lyric Video! See who's in the lead and vote: http://t.co/2hg5lSXurI $m^$
David Yablon
22 Aug 14 10:39:29
Stock Updates
22 Aug 14 10:31:17
$M: Athleticwear Picks Up Pace In Fashion, Boosts Stocks http://t.co/lmKrxJrnN1 http://t.co/MFnlkA5w8u
Ticker Report
22 Aug 14 10:29:52
Macy's Hits New 1-Year High on Analyst Upgrade $M http://t.co/9eizFUTZ24
22 Aug 14 10:06:42
...paid low $m, good dfnse playmakers + bsr for 2nd to home & 1st to 3rd risp catalysts, 4-5 of those in lineup beats 4 slow mashers 2:1..
22 Aug 14 10:00:34
RT @NathanKnew: @brianfresco in his new whip #Gwagon $m http://t.co/Iee9Ry0T2X
Karol Douglas
22 Aug 14 09:53:43
@squarepegjam well, at least this guy (#BenedictCumberbatch ) knows why he did it https://t.co/qKmWAyxOWk . Good news is they've raised $m's
Borja Gonzalez
22 Aug 14 09:50:41
RT @bondv_espanol: Quien ha presuntamente evitado el pago de $m en intereses manipulando su inflación desde 2007? http://t.co/GH40KBMgjQ ht…
Evener Investment
22 Aug 14 09:50:41
RT @MarketCurrents: Macy's, declares $0.3125 dividend http://t.co/FgnwoVUsUP $M
22 Aug 14 09:48:54
Macy's, declares $0.3125 dividend http://t.co/FgnwoVUsUP $M
22 Aug 14 09:40:02
Macy : Board Declares Quarterly Dividend http://t.co/o9geIpi2Dn $M
BV Services
22 Aug 14 09:38:09
$M: Macy’s, Inc. Board Declares Quarterly Dividend.. http://t.co/3aCYVnDVGU
Business Headlines
22 Aug 14 09:31:18
$M: Deals only a click away for back-to-school season http://t.co/KU3IAIFlEx http://t.co/uc01kePEfQ
Iron Born
22 Aug 14 09:23:58
Floyd dropped out of high school and has taken some hits so of course his reading is poor. But his math seems to be good counting the $m's
22 Aug 14 08:55:58
also $JCP doesn't get enough attention than it should. it clearly was the best earnings report in the sector. $KSS was the 2nd, $M was worst
22 Aug 14 08:44:59
Strong uptrend stocks $GMCR $AER $AAP $FL $M $BITA $GILD $CAVM $YY $SPR $X $AKS $STLD $TARO $ACT $SAVE $LUV
22 Aug 14 08:18:22
$M: 3 open, suited signals indicate continued price increase for about 7 more days. http://t.co/3c9S5LDwMW
22 Aug 14 07:39:43
dan anak $M emang pada gila semua daaah
Market News
22 Aug 14 07:31:17
$M: Shoppers' Brisk Spending Benefits Range Of Retailers http://t.co/VhEAbitfML http://t.co/szwIG2TBgK
By  +Follow November 12, 2013 1:53PM



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