logo
Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?

Register
    

 

Equities – Your destination to connect with the growth investment community.

Is It Already Too Late to Play the Holidays?

By  +Follow November 12, 2013 1:53PM
Share:
Tickers Mentioned:

As the holiday season gets underway, investors may be looking to play the retail space as consumers start on their shopping lists. But is has the Consumer Discretionary sector already baked in those prices? We asked Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group for her thoughts here.  

EQ: Last week, the market experienced a significant dip on Thursday after failing to break the all-time high, but seems to have regained its upward direction. Is this a good sign from a technical standpoint?

Turner: Yes, it did move higher on Friday after the big downdraft on Thursday. It held in a very narrow range on Monday, but of course, the bond market was closed. On the daily chart of the S&P 500, last Thursday was a pretty violent move down on increasing volume. I’ve seen those large bearish engulfing candles before in markets that are overstretched, such like this one is. While those big red engulfing candles may not mark the top, it usually indicates that the bears are waking up and coming out of their caves.

EQ: From a fundamental standpoint, the market still seems to be pretty optimistic for the intermediate-to-long-term outlook, but short term, we may be susceptible to a bit of a technical pullback here. Is that normal behavior for a market trading at these levels?

Turner: Yes, it is. Our market moves in cycles, and no price goes straight up forever, or straight down forever either. Sentiment reading show the ratios of bulls to bears topped at 3.5-to-1. That’s the Investors’ Intelligence poll, and typically when ratios get to that level, it has coincided with market pullbacks and corrections. Also, mutual funds are showing a stampede into equities funds and out of bond funds. So it looks like the retail traders are moving back into the market. To me, those are all signals to raise my stops on my long positions.

EQ: Is now a good time to start focusing closely on the retail sector and the ETFs in that space?

Turner: Interestingly enough, the Consumer Discretionary sector thrives during the period of Oct. 28 to April 20. So that’s winter to early spring, and peaks just before the equities markets top out in May. If we look at Consumer Staples, which is also retail, it usually does well from April 23 to Oct. 27. So it’s the opposite of Consumer Discretionary.

As well, a very typical retail sector trade would be to buy retail stocks on Labor Day and then sell them before Thanksgiving. However, if you look at the most popular retailers, their best growth quarter is the fourth quarter. So, I like to hold companies like Macy’s, Inc. (M) or Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) up to their earnings reports that typically come out in January. While I hold up to those reports, em, I don’t always hold through them. I like to play the anticipation more than the reality.

EQ: So the best of breeds in this space have a bit more of a shelf life?

Turner: I find they do. It doesn’t mean it’s always smooth sailing by any stretch, however. Retailers can put out very surprising numbers, especially with same-store sales numbers issued monthly. And, there a re a lot of variables that affect retailers’ numbers, such as the price of gasoline and the weather. So for them, it’s not just about earnings. Still,  Macy’s and Nordstrom are two retailers that I definitely enjoy playing—and I enjoy shopping there too!

EQ: What are some other sectors or industry groups that look interesting to you?

Turner: Right now, I’m watching the regional banks and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ($KRE). It popped up higher on Monday, and does that many times when interest rates rise because that gives regionals banks a bit of a boost. It popped up Friday, and pulled back a bit on Monday. I also be interested in looking at the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF ($KIE). Although it’s made great gains recently, many times insurance companies stand to profit interest rates go higher.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer


Liked What You Read? Join Equities.com and Connect With Your Favorite Financial Experts FOR FREE! Members of Equities.com gain access to our leading financial news and content, active social investment community, proprietary research tools including the 2014 Small-Cap Stars, E.V.A. reports and more.

Results for m
sue
27 Apr 15 20:34:16
@USthermophysics @CColose @MikeH2014 @ClimateOfGavin @mattwridley @BjornLomborg And as Dir of GISS has access to $M funding earmarks...
Supergoodboy856
27 Apr 15 20:06:03
Gift Upload This Gift is $68 $M And A code:ThatFartSuck71
Bilo Selhi
27 Apr 15 19:33:58
Subscribers alerted to $JRJC +19% http://t.co/W3gditBjAt SEE TRACK RECORD http://t.co/JthrNbzdrc $SYMX $CANF $CELH $HIVE $CDE $IMH $M
FUNKY BUFFALO
27 Apr 15 19:13:31
The false prophet Dingo Boi has corrupted several high ranking $M officials. God help us all
Noric Dilanchian
27 Apr 15 19:08:13
Grooveshark $M damages soon 4 email: "Please share as much music as possible from outside the office...". https://t.co/EwjmKJ7tRK #copyright
Fërnando Ponce
27 Apr 15 18:54:51
Jay Z perderá unos $M nada más. #FailFast https://t.co/7y7TQvOUqB
Lovely Hun 엑소엘 ExoL
27 Apr 15 17:43:18
Really exo staffs are really really annoying in person 😡😡😡 or should I say $M staffs???
Lisa りーさ
27 Apr 15 16:43:22
GOVT PUTS 22,000 LIVES AT RISK: Need $m of roads/bridges to allow Sydneysiders to escape safely from flood waters. #HawkesburyNepean #nswpol
Bryce Pearce
27 Apr 15 16:29:10
.@LouisMMayo At the same time we're spending $M’s on cycle lanes and #Travelwise our transport planners allow this to be built.
gerardo gutierrez
27 Apr 15 14:14:43
RT @piritusur: #RaspaCupos : 8 $M ...#Andorra : 14.000 $MM y aun no dicen nada ...!!
PirituSur !
27 Apr 15 14:07:22
#RaspaCupos : 8 $M ...#Andorra : 14.000 $MM y aun no dicen nada ...!!
Duke of Darlo Road
27 Apr 15 14:04:56
If big business "lent" $M's to the Liberal Party - would there be calls of unfair?
Duke of Darlo Road
27 Apr 15 14:00:50
Loans for election purposes is dodgey. Imagine if the Unions lent 10's of $M's to ALP. Would people be crying "unfair"? ALex G has been 1/2
Jeff Sandene, CFP®
27 Apr 15 13:29:39
4/27/15 S&P 500: -0.41% GREEN: $DD $XOM $T $VZ $WFC $IBM $TXN $DIS $GE RED: $SPY $CVX $V $MA $M $JPM $BAC $PEP $JNJ $MCD $PG $PFE $KO $MMM
Sir Plus
27 Apr 15 13:11:46
#SpringSt #IBAC: #Education Dept $m fm #schools #AndrewsD #14027 http://t.co/lMqnMpyixX #ABCNews24 #auspol http://t.co/rtaGLIozIz oㄥo
Zero Filter
27 Apr 15 12:51:23
And right-on-cue $UA college fanboys come chirping-in oblivious to valuation (trading 45x'17 but growing 14%) & invoking Cramer $XRT $M $NKE
pablo
27 Apr 15 12:19:18
@MarkCC he was the co-founder at @github who heinously mismanaged the company, got several $m to start new one after http://t.co/XZFR7FKROd
FortuneCookieStocks
27 Apr 15 12:15:11
$JWN A $NKE kind $M $FL #money word will $UA $XRT keep someone warm for years. @zerofiltertruth https://t.co/iIwyn9r6vr,
DICK POOP
27 Apr 15 12:10:27
So excited for Lewis' party. Got 4 WKDs for it. Gunna get $m@$h€d🍻
Zero Filter
27 Apr 15 12:03:52
If $UA traded at 2.5x it's recurring '15 EPS growth rate 13.7% even on overly optimistic '17 EPS would be $63 stock / $XRT $M $JWN $NKE $FL
Hannah Rees
27 Apr 15 11:47:32
@PaulBromford eek! I have to say, the phone call is my pet peeve. Unless a $m deal will fall thru, you can wait til the end of the meeting!
US Banking News
27 Apr 15 11:39:23
Mackie Lowers Macy's Price Target to C$16.50 $M http://t.co/XLLEUGMYiL
WKRB News
27 Apr 15 11:28:29
Macy's Given New C$16.50 Price Target at Mackie $M http://t.co/tGjowU1SMf
karla haydee
27 Apr 15 11:26:11
@MandaaaGonzalez @!w@y$ $m!l!nG @+ M@ii h8rzzzz
Stock Trade Alerts
27 Apr 15 11:24:47
SHORT Seller Alert $M - MACY'S #ShortSeller #Stocks ~ via #AlertTrade
US Consumer News
27 Apr 15 11:15:26
Macy's's PT cut by Mackie to C$16.50. buy rating. http://t.co/SxXRT0D8Eh $M #M
Analyst Ratings
27 Apr 15 11:10:34
Macy's's PT cut by Mackie to C$16.50. buy rating. http://t.co/TyBsHDofU8 $M #M
Anhtuan Nguyen Huynh
27 Apr 15 10:25:57
Vision born while @ #nvcc in mid 90s http://t.co/LRZNzpopKU The opportunity of making $m in the textbook market http://t.co/jelvcNeolf
ProVesting
27 Apr 15 09:37:02
$M: Harvey Miller, Giant of the Bankruptcy Bar, Dead at 82: http://t.co/1nqArNt4pF
W Bruce Brown
27 Apr 15 09:07:19
@LibsInAmerica Cash Rules Everything Around Him....... $M Bill Y'all #UniteBlue #tcot #p2 #Inyhbt #teaparty
José Luis Ansorena
27 Apr 15 09:00:42
@gaussianos $dxdy$ es la manera clásica de denotar $dm_2(x,y)$ donde $m_2$ es la medida de Lebesgue bidimensional. (2/2)
José Luis Ansorena
27 Apr 15 08:58:40
@gaussianos $dx$ es la manera clásica de denotar $dm(x)$, donde $m$ es la medida de Lebesgue 1-dimensional. (1/2)
Vic Cherubini
27 Apr 15 08:50:48
Am I missing something about Mockery? $m = Mockery::mock('StdClass'); $m->shouldReceive('fetchColumn')->never(); $m->fetchColumn();
CellyInDaTrap
27 Apr 15 08:50:20
Free $M
Atho™
27 Apr 15 08:17:54
Meiga cemen ah 👎 $m#akuidulupssi 😂😂😂 https://t.co/yep9crvFOI
CAROLINA MORENO
27 Apr 15 07:37:05
Gob comunista culpa a los pendejos de el robo millonario de $. corruptos enchufados asuman son uds los ladrones de $M http://t.co/4SPStPUqQS
Zero Filter
27 Apr 15 06:43:35
$ARO 13-D & pending board chgs incl #SycamorePartners 1 "Confident well positioned return profitability" - what's going on there ?? $XRT $M
yung Kavos
27 Apr 15 06:34:00
I liked a @YouTube video http://t.co/DRMBlBxBMV H6IL $M /Appclips
ProVesting
27 Apr 15 05:45:05
$PRU $M $ARMH: Dipping Stocks: Prudential Financial, (NYSE:PRU), Macy's, (NYSE ...: http://t.co/aBNSZ3PAYC
Sleek Money
27 Apr 15 05:05:28
Mosaic Capital Corp Downgraded by National Bank Financial $M http://t.co/FXFNaFY6ze
Diego Sanchez
27 Apr 15 04:30:29
RT @TalkMMA: My dude @diegokaratesan5 makes a valid point? You want your merchandise sold by the $M's. You have to do coke, drink, beat you…
#HUArmy
27 Apr 15 04:29:36
My dude @diegokaratesan5 makes a valid point? You want your merchandise sold by the $M's. You have to do coke, drink, beat your loved ones
Bilo Selhi
27 Apr 15 02:19:16
http://t.co/W3gditBjAt members alerted to $GENE +15% See track record and join today http://t.co/FgxlFlEFcJ $SPU $LEU $RIGL $AGEN $M
DoN GrOUp
26 Apr 15 21:17:27
a 'meena' dher ghoror di. ***'=>P£ÉÈ$É $m!£É<='*** [*"G
Jeff Sandene, CFP®
26 Apr 15 21:03:10
Last Week, S&P 500: +1.75% GREEN: $SPY $VZ $DIS $M $MA $IBM $KO $PFE $JNJ $XOM $CVX $WFC $BRKB RED: $MMM $TXN $PEP $C $JPM $PG $BAC $GE $MCD
ALMA PATRIOTA
26 Apr 15 20:43:23
RT @RRositarmas: @entransito7 @heidyriveros @carlosmontestwt @iallendebussi @CostaPardaa Siiiii que expliquen también x los falsos detenido…
Armine Yalnizyan
26 Apr 15 19:26:51
@IanMcGugan at @globeinvestor supports suggested TFSA limits http://t.co/oO15OFO8bW lets typical Cdns save, doesn't subsidize $M+ porftolios
Larry Borneisen
26 Apr 15 19:24:04
RT @RussVet1: Busted: HILDERBEAST Foundation told IRS no donations from foreign governments for "three yrs", not an error a bold crime to a…
linda beyer
26 Apr 15 19:19:30
RT @RussVet1: Busted: HILDERBEAST Foundation told IRS no donations from foreign governments for "three yrs", not an error a bold crime to a…
Conservative Deb
26 Apr 15 19:18:14
RT @RussVet1: Busted: HILDERBEAST Foundation told IRS no donations from foreign governments for "three yrs", not an error a bold crime to a…
				
				
By  +Follow November 12, 2013 1:53PM
Share:

Comments

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.