logo
Sign in or Register

Already a member?

Sign in

Or sign in with your account on:

Not a member yet?

Register
    

Is It Already Too Late to Play the Holidays?

By  +Follow November 12, 2013 1:53PM
Share:
Tickers Mentioned:

As the holiday season gets underway, investors may be looking to play the retail space as consumers start on their shopping lists. But is has the Consumer Discretionary sector already baked in those prices? We asked Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group for her thoughts here.  

EQ: Last week, the market experienced a significant dip on Thursday after failing to break the all-time high, but seems to have regained its upward direction. Is this a good sign from a technical standpoint?

Turner: Yes, it did move higher on Friday after the big downdraft on Thursday. It held in a very narrow range on Monday, but of course, the bond market was closed. On the daily chart of the S&P 500, last Thursday was a pretty violent move down on increasing volume. I’ve seen those large bearish engulfing candles before in markets that are overstretched, such like this one is. While those big red engulfing candles may not mark the top, it usually indicates that the bears are waking up and coming out of their caves.

EQ: From a fundamental standpoint, the market still seems to be pretty optimistic for the intermediate-to-long-term outlook, but short term, we may be susceptible to a bit of a technical pullback here. Is that normal behavior for a market trading at these levels?

Turner: Yes, it is. Our market moves in cycles, and no price goes straight up forever, or straight down forever either. Sentiment reading show the ratios of bulls to bears topped at 3.5-to-1. That’s the Investors’ Intelligence poll, and typically when ratios get to that level, it has coincided with market pullbacks and corrections. Also, mutual funds are showing a stampede into equities funds and out of bond funds. So it looks like the retail traders are moving back into the market. To me, those are all signals to raise my stops on my long positions.

EQ: Is now a good time to start focusing closely on the retail sector and the ETFs in that space?

Turner: Interestingly enough, the Consumer Discretionary sector thrives during the period of Oct. 28 to April 20. So that’s winter to early spring, and peaks just before the equities markets top out in May. If we look at Consumer Staples, which is also retail, it usually does well from April 23 to Oct. 27. So it’s the opposite of Consumer Discretionary.

As well, a very typical retail sector trade would be to buy retail stocks on Labor Day and then sell them before Thanksgiving. However, if you look at the most popular retailers, their best growth quarter is the fourth quarter. So, I like to hold companies like Macy’s, Inc. (M) or Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) up to their earnings reports that typically come out in January. While I hold up to those reports, em, I don’t always hold through them. I like to play the anticipation more than the reality.

EQ: So the best of breeds in this space have a bit more of a shelf life?

Turner: I find they do. It doesn’t mean it’s always smooth sailing by any stretch, however. Retailers can put out very surprising numbers, especially with same-store sales numbers issued monthly. And, there a re a lot of variables that affect retailers’ numbers, such as the price of gasoline and the weather. So for them, it’s not just about earnings. Still,  Macy’s and Nordstrom are two retailers that I definitely enjoy playing—and I enjoy shopping there too!

EQ: What are some other sectors or industry groups that look interesting to you?

Turner: Right now, I’m watching the regional banks and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ($KRE). It popped up higher on Monday, and does that many times when interest rates rise because that gives regionals banks a bit of a boost. It popped up Friday, and pulled back a bit on Monday. I also be interested in looking at the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF ($KIE). Although it’s made great gains recently, many times insurance companies stand to profit interest rates go higher.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.


Signup for our daily newsletter and get our best articles emailed right to you!

Results for m
Anhtuan Nguyen Huynh
2 Sep 14 11:13:25
RT @atvisions: #Syria: What needs to be investigated is unaccounted $m of US taxpayers $ to the rebels. Good #foreignaffairs wouldn't cost …
US Banking News
2 Sep 14 10:36:52
Canaccord Genuity Raises Mosaic Capital Corp Price Target to C$16.00 $M http://t.co/8Jzl3ZTai2
Market Updates
2 Sep 14 10:31:19
$M: Deals only a click away for back-to-school season http://t.co/3GMsKB7H3I http://t.co/4Nm5PsjqRs
WKRB News
2 Sep 14 10:25:33
Canaccord Genuity Boosts Mosaic Capital Corp Price Target to C$16.00 $M http://t.co/cCISdBUGqm
Michael Maggi
2 Sep 14 10:20:02
"The #Consumer Continues to Struggle" $AVP http://t.co/lJppWQtGYX #retail #shopping #finance #money #cnbc #wsj $JCP $M $DDS $KSS #investment
Tea Party Mobile
2 Sep 14 10:18:42
$TVIX - BREAKING: #ISIS Realeses #Beheading #Video of Steven #Sotloff $spy $UVXY #SPCRASH #DOWCRASH $AAPL $F $BBY $CONN $M $S $RL $R $WYNN
 IG : @DMVMayham
2 Sep 14 10:14:56
Ohhh... One my #Cuttys on here tryna get bad on me.. Lukkin Guudd, Lukkin Gewdd.. #ISeeYou $M$
US Consumer News
2 Sep 14 10:14:19
Mosaic Capital Corp's PT raised by Canaccord Genuity to C$16.00. buy rating. http://t.co/VPAFcVmWB8 $M #M
Sleek Money
2 Sep 14 10:11:23
Canaccord Genuity Boosts Mosaic Capital Corp Price Target to C$16.00 $M http://t.co/UC8XLuTJiu
Analyst Ratings
2 Sep 14 10:06:56
Mosaic Capital Corp's PT raised by Canaccord Genuity to C$16.00. buy rating. http://t.co/85cdVJtIvy $M #M
Stock Updates
2 Sep 14 09:31:21
$M: Why Target's Earnings Warning Isn't Pummeling the Stock http://t.co/zj4hHvWErk http://t.co/zUlvJ6Zvnz
PennyStock Zone
2 Sep 14 09:03:43
Multimillionaire trader SUPERTRADES and his EASY to replicate strategy can make you money! http://t.co/Ho9ydXHTWl $MIDD $VRX $M $RDNT
IH News Desk
2 Sep 14 08:37:46
$FCX Chart http://t.co/XN5rr1RRck Also See: $DUST $BSX $M $BITA ~
PennyStock Zone
2 Sep 14 08:17:26
Replicate multimillionaire strategy easy to copy! Subscription is cheap at twice the price! http://t.co/Ho9ydXHTWl $M $XL $MMC $BSMX $SPG
Langan Stocks
2 Sep 14 08:08:37
$EWT Day High http://t.co/4FZmu6ztRB Also See: $XLV $PEIX $SWHC $M ~
IH NASDAQ OMX
2 Sep 14 07:56:47
$EWT Day Low http://t.co/9f80KYwpxz Also See: $M $GOOG $IYT $DIS ~
ChrisMidTownRx
2 Sep 14 07:44:51
RT @nashvillebiz: Building a business around a website name can be a pretty lucrative idea…. $M's for one #Nashville #entrepreneur http://…
Market Int Center
2 Sep 14 07:41:54
Potential Macy's $M Trade Targets 2.23% Return ( http://t.co/0PWjLpTWwR )
Market Updater
2 Sep 14 07:31:26
$M: Is Macy's Undervalued? (M) http://t.co/WJYszHBmoq http://t.co/qwmWhVVC7H
benson
2 Sep 14 07:15:00
was in $M $KSS $JCP on Saturday $KSS had 2 dressing rooms in mens $JCP had 5. $M store was trashed! $JCP easy 2 shop . $JCP = most customers
Stock Forums
2 Sep 14 07:12:11
$EMC Last Trade http://t.co/viIr1ZIqYO Also See: $M $USO $XIV $M ~
Investors Hangout
2 Sep 14 06:39:29
$DUST Ask Size http://t.co/lceKDdGCYc Also See: $MU $AAPL $FXE $M ~
baby cookie *✧○
2 Sep 14 05:40:12
@/Hyungbaes HAHAHA his name tho got me lol-ing lmao $m moneytainment cool
Investors Hangout
2 Sep 14 05:33:12
$DDM 52Wk Low http://t.co/I7ZJgveXDK Also See: $M $DM.TO $NKE $IMSC ~
Market Compass
2 Sep 14 05:31:26
$M: Macy's to pay $650,000 in shopper-profiling probe http://t.co/YlrC4nuKOR http://t.co/O1Qxv054Mv
IH NASDAQ OMX
2 Sep 14 04:58:05
$DBA Quotes http://t.co/HOTVDljUOB Also See: $SGLB $HKUP $IYR $M ~
©®••k€D $m!l£
2 Sep 14 04:53:26
Sometimes you have to Get away to , Better yourself.√ #©®••k£D $m!l£.
IH NASDAQ OMX
2 Sep 14 04:42:31
$CSIQ Financials http://t.co/LYrqcpXWxj Also See: $F $FXE $DDD $M ~
IH NASDAQ OMX
2 Sep 14 04:35:34
$CSCO Prev Close http://t.co/GbAUCCkMBC Also See: $WLT $M $EWP $TQNT ~
Investors Hangout
2 Sep 14 04:02:05
$CDE Investor Opinions http://t.co/sr89BpTft9 Also See: $YRI.TO $XOP $IYT $M ~
Financial Headlines
2 Sep 14 03:31:20
$M: Plugged-In Over Preppy: Teenagers Favor Tech Over Clothes http://t.co/6NDx1AZuN4 http://t.co/Nqj7NmtrAv
Investors Hangout
2 Sep 14 03:16:11
Stock_Tracker: Macy's Inc (M) 62.29 $M Will Fashion Brand Vince http://t.co/dB8se041K1
Investors Hangout
2 Sep 14 03:16:10
Stock_Tracker: Macy's Inc (M) 62.29 $M Will Fashion Brand Vince http://t.co/GhREClXOLM
Benji Waterside
2 Sep 14 03:06:26
@Kerriegeorgette well we can continue with 40k+ debt per head, or copy Norway and have $M in cash per head, what sounds better?
Investors Hangout
2 Sep 14 02:50:16
$BITA Ask Size http://t.co/W5lGZPhvBk Also See: $M $ATHM $EEM $XLF ~
 °•♥ ad usum... ♥•°
2 Sep 14 02:32:11
T&T cops probe $m party financier over huge cocaine bust http://t.co/170s65CzxF via @stabroeknews
Greg L
2 Sep 14 02:14:11
@ChrisMac1270 @LoughnaneB a line of revenue amounting to minimal $m's against costs of several $ b's. Simple economics
Stock Forums
2 Sep 14 01:59:17
$AXAS Bid Size http://t.co/kLFu73l4ka Also See: $FEZ $M $VZ $PDGO ~
Stock News Updates
2 Sep 14 01:31:20
$M: [video] Retail battle heats up http://t.co/A3U1DZzF9j http://t.co/SZfLxP6frN
Follow @ bewafa
2 Sep 14 01:12:58
*2# ('.')_/'' WåÎtÎñg <||||| Fôr ûr LL $M$
IH News Desk
2 Sep 14 01:11:32
$AMBA Financials http://t.co/9uNOZut7y2 Also See: $M $DISH $GOOG $AXAS ~
ㅇ.ㅈ.ㅊ
2 Sep 14 00:44:05
@triestyaandini udah.. km ngendon di cafe2 sekitar situ aja. Ga usah nunggu di dpn gedung $M. Km doyan liat Jinki tanpa make up kan? XD
Auto Binary option
2 Sep 14 00:31:01
RT @Stock_Tracker1: Macy's Inc (M) 62.29 $M Will Fashion Brand Vince Holdings Score Again In Q2? at Investor's Business Daily - Mo http://t…
Stock_Tracker
2 Sep 14 00:25:27
Macy's Inc (M) 62.29 $M Will Fashion Brand Vince Holdings Score Again In Q2? at Investor's Business Daily - Mo http://t.co/Jp1uhcvHLG
MBA 2016™
1 Sep 14 23:13:36
@PhumlaShongwe @newera2chop $m
Financial Updates
1 Sep 14 22:31:19
$M: Is Macy's Undervalued? (M) http://t.co/UpLYlbkR5W http://t.co/USYrKmCF3k
Han
1 Sep 14 22:23:07
$M!L3$ http://t.co/NlN7WqlRIK
_Kir_venBille
1 Sep 14 21:50:34
RT @_E_me_linWaters: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #GAIN #FOLLOWTRICK #FOLLOWBACK…
jMuoreyArabeila
1 Sep 14 21:46:29
RT @_E_me_linWaters: ☯Gain Followers ☯RT This ☯MUST FOLLOW ME I FOLLOW BACK ☯Follow everyone who rts ☯Gain #GAIN #FOLLOWTRICK #FOLLOWBACK…
MATSUO Masaru
1 Sep 14 21:33:38
@syossan27 (つづき)Illuminate\Database\Eloquent\Collectionを戻す。なので $m = Model::where(['foo' => 'bar']->get(); if ($m->count === 0) (つづく)
				
				
By  +Follow November 12, 2013 1:53PM
Share:

Comments

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

About us

Equities.com is the most advanced interactive online social ecosystem for the financial industry, serving as a resource center and next-generation communication platform that connects self-directed investors with public issuers, market experts, and professional service providers and vendors. Registered members can leverage our exclusive proprietary research tools such as the Small-Cap Stars, which outperformed 90% of all small-cap mutual funds, and robust do-it-yourself E.V.A. research reports. The Equities.com Issuer Dashboard is the ideal tool to communicate and manage investor awareness campaigns to the investment community, as well as to access valuable resources to help your company grow.

Market Data powered by QuoteMedia.
Copyright © QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of Use.