Traditionally, Thanksgiving week closes on the upside, but is followed by a decline the Monday after.*
I continue to believe a lot of the portfolio changes that normally take place in December are taking place now – that spells irrational volatility.
It is a good time to look for emerging winners, new faces that have been marked for success in 2014.
Then too, track 2103 winners like FB that are getting hit by profit-taking. Most will come back.
I am concerned about a January correction, but have not completed my research. Much will depend on the market’s behavior in December.
Note: My apologies for the lateness, here. Most of this blog was written last night and saved. I got a late start today only to find this post was lost somewhere in my computer. Life’s great.
Investor’s first read– a daily edge before the open
S&P 500: 1,802
Russell 2000: 1,125
Monday, Nov. 26, 2013
TIMING – OPPORTUNITY STOCKS
The following are based on technical analysis only and are not to be taken as buy or sell recommendations, but as one of many factors that must be considered in the decision process. Comments do not take into consideration earnings reports, or changes in institutional ratings, company guidance. Technical analysis is based on one’s interpretation of the impact buying and selling have on the price of a stock and is therefore not an exact science. News and events can change an interpretation instantly.
Apple (AAPL: $523.74) Positive.
AAPL’s three-week consolidation should be resolved up or down shortly, support is $522, Resistance is $528
Facebook (FB: $44.82) Positive
FB has had a steady seller since mid-October, and the selling accelerated yesterday, as profit takers hustled to lock in gains before they vanished. Facebook has traced out a mini “heads & shoulders” top (distribution pattern) indicating a potential drop to the mid-to-high 30s. The most valid H&S tops form over a longer period. I think FB can find support around $42.25
IBM (IBM: $178.94) positive/neutral
Its breakdownfrom $186 to $181 cut IBM’s move upward short due a to Hedge fund short seller’s negative comments about IBM’ s future. Stock may slip to $179.35. Upside is currently limited $182.75.
Pulte Homes (PHM: $18.15) Positive
No major changes: Optimism and doubts alternate each week about the direction of the housing industry. Yellen’s assurance before the Senate Banking Committee that she would pursue an accommodative Fed policy going forward as Fed Chair gives the bulls a leg up. PHM has spent 5 days digesting its sharp move up from $16.50. It may slip back to $17.50, then rebound
First Solar (FSLR:$59.94) Positive
Strong fundamentals and panicky short sellers have prompted one breakout after another. Year-end portfolio strategies most likely at work here, which could slow FSLR’s :”rush,”Support $55.60. Resistance $61.
Nike (NKE:$79.13 ) Positive
Another new high possible Nike headed for 80s.May slip down to $78.30. first.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: $25.32) Positive.
Potential product recall of Chromebook II hammered HPQ last week, taking it down sharply. Company will have to define the impact of a recall primarily centered on an
overheating charger. Locked in narrow resistance/support channel between$24.85 and $25.60. Breakouts either way, call for a 2-point move,
Polaris Inds. (PII:134.35) Positive
Positive consolidation pattern . Support $132 , Resistance is $136.
Amazon (AMZN: $372.31) Positive
Raymond James’ Aaron Kessler recently raised his rating to Strong Buy from Market Perform. Kessler looks prescient as AMZN may be headed for $400.
Pandora Media (P:$29.23) Positive.
This stock has lovers and haters and its volatility reflects it. It Will try to reverse its slide between $25.50 and $26.50
THE ECONOMY: HUGE !
Prior to Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing last week, there was a concern for an early taper. Her testimony seemed to assure the Street that the Fed will continue to accommodate the economic recovery if she becomes chairman. For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”
The economy is again a major impact factor of the stock and bond market since it stands to dictate Fed policy change.
Pending Home Sales Ix. (10:00) Declined 0.6 pct to 102.1, a 10-month low.
Dallas Fed Mfg Svy (10:30)
ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45) Sales for major retail stores saw a 2.6 pct increase for the Nov 23 week
Housing Starts (8:30)
FHFA House Price Ix, (9:00) House prices rose 0.3pct in September vs a gain of 0.4pct in August
S&P Case-Shiller September, HPI (9:00) house prices here were 1.0 pct vs. +0,9 pct Y/Y gain is 13.3pct
Consumer Confidence (10:00)
Richmond Fed. Mfg Ix, (10:00)
Durable Goods (8:30
Jobless Claims (8:30)
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Ix. (8:30)
Chicago PMI (9:45)
Leading Indicators (10:00)
Thanks giving day off.
Fed Balance Sheet 4:30
RECENT POSTS – 2013
Nov 6 DJIA 15,618 “Bulls Hold the Edge, But What About Interest Rates ?
Nov 7 DJIA 15,747 “Early Profit Taking or Warning of a Correction ?”
Nov 8 DJIA 15,593 “Time for the Street to Get Off the Fed Teat”
Nov 12 DJIA 15, 761 “The Economy, Interest Rates, The Fed, Stock Market”
Nov 12 DJIA 15,783 “Get Ready for Year-End Cross Currents”
Nov 13 DJIA 15,750 “Money Manager Dilemma – Your Problem, as Well
Nov 14 DJIA 15,821 “Feeding Frenzy in 2014’s Winners ? Big Day for “TECH
Nov 15 DJIA 15,876 “Yellen – No Taper – Surprise January Correction ?
Nov 18 DJIA 15,961 “Green Light to Load Up on Stocks ?
Nov 25 DJIA 16,064 Fetch the Blinders – Here come the forecasts
“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”
*STOCK TRADERS ALMANAC: The new annual Stock Trader’s Almanac is off the press. This is a “must,” always has been, if you are a serious investor, or intend to be a serious investor. Visit stocktradersalmanac.com for details
The writer of Investor’s first read, George Brooks, is not registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk. Brooks may buy or sell stocks referred to herein.