"Theft, Pure and Simple..." Say the Cypriots!

Mike Turner |

"Theft, Pure and Simple..." say the Cypriots!

This past week, the US President stated in an interview with George Stephanopoulos, "...we don't have an immediate crisis in terms of debt. In fact, for the next ten years, it's gonna be in a sustainable place." Really? With the debt on a trajectory to hit $20 trillion by the end of his 2nd term, that just does not seem to fit the definition of sustainable. I guess his statement that when Bush ran up a deficit in 8 years that took Obama less than 4 years to achieve the was less than half of what Obama has run up in 4 years, it was "unpatriotic", only applies if you're a Republican.

Fact: The national debt rose $4.899 trillion in Bush's 8 years in the White House. The debt rose $4.939 trillion in Obama's 4 years in the White House.

But, since our Socialist-in-Chief does not see the burgeoning debt that his policies are certainly not abating, maybe he has another plan for solving our debt crises that is being 'tested' this weekend by the European Union... more on this in a bit.

Part of my job... perhaps my most important job... is to help you make far better trades so that you can build and grow your net worth. My rules, tools and trading strategies have one primary objective: To make you richer and to do so at the lowest risk of loss possible. I want your bank account to grow faster than you need it to grow. The last thing I want is for you to be surprised at a sudden and unexpected reduction in your bank account due to a form of nationalization by the US Government. No... I am not a conspiracy theorist; and, no, I do not think this will happen... but if you read on, you might learn that it certainly could.

What if one weekend, after you had spent years making the right trades at the right time, you had accumulated a very nice and sound nest egg of cash sitting in your local bank. Then, one weekend when you least expect it. you find out that the government is seizing your bank account and arbitrarily taking 10% from your nest egg and that of everyone else's accounts in your bank; 10% of all the cash you have on hand. How would that sit with you and how would that impact your life and net worth?

Poppycock you say? Do people still actually say, "Poppycock?"... but I digress...

Believe it or not... the EU model of government that Obama is attempting to "transform" the US (us) into, is doing this as I write this weekend's Report and doing it on a 3-day bank holiday in the island country of Cyprus. Cyprus went to the EU for a bailout due to its debt and the EU said okay, but in order to get the bailout, the EU has demanded all depositors in all the Cyprus banks to forfeit up to nearly 10% of the cash on deposit! The Cypriots are clamoring to get to ATM's to pull their cash out, but many of the banks have closed the ATMs to help avoid a bank run. Come Tuesday, when the banks open, the theft will already be done.

So what, you may ask? That can never happen in America! Well... with a mushrooming debt that the current Administration says is not a problem... at what point does that problem suddenly require a withdrawal of cash from your bank account by none other than the American version of the European Union?


As you probably know, my CycleProphet, Inc. company has developed, what I believe are the best stock market investing tools in world. Of course, I am more than a bit biased in that opinion, but having heard this opinion stated often from my customers who have quite a bit of experience with competing products, I am pretty sure that we have the best tools for helping investors significantly improve the success of their trades.

Quote worth Quoting Again
"A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government, and this is necessary to close the circle of our felicity."... Thomas Jefferson

One of our tools is called, "Equity Forecaster". It is an amazing tool that actually forecasts daily price movements of any stock or ETF for the next 90 days. We just completed an exhaustive test of 10's of thousands of studies on dozens of tickers. This was a totally blind test where the program then made all the decisions on when to get in and when to get out of over two dozen stocks, ETFs and Indexes Here are the results for the DJIA Index:

  • Equity Forecaster Blind Trading of the DJIA Index (using the DIA ETF) had a Total Return (2002 through) of+334%!
  • The DJIA, for that same period of time, gained +31%
  • Equity Forecaster had no losing years while the DJIA lost over -16% in 2002, less than 1% loss in 2005 and lost over -33% in 2008..

We will soon be posting all the stats on the website. The results are impressive. What is important to know is that we have been able to achieve an amazing advancement in predictive time-cycle science. If you are not using this technology, you are definitely missing an important element of timing your trades. Personally, I would not invest any money in the stock market without consulting this tool's forecasts.


Market Top or Just Getting Started...

With the depositor haircut happening right now in Cyprus, the market could dance a little lower this week. I have 4 new trades that I want to put on, which will put me 100% invested, but I plan to take a wait-and-see on how the markets react to the idea that the EU could just swoop into a country and take money out of bank accounts. This could be a jolt that roils the markets... we'll see.

As I (and about 90% of all the prognosticators) have said for the last few weeks, the market is due to take a bit of a breather at most any time. All that's needed is a decent excuse. When that happens, my Equity Forecaster charts indicate a pull-back of 4% or more is a buying opportunity.

I don't think we are at a break-out to the upside from the 12-year consolidation period, but this market could easily go higher. Again... waiting for a small pull-back for an entry point is worth considering.

Below is my 100-year+ historical view of the market, showing all the previous consolidation periods (shaded). It would not surprise me if this current consolidation period lasts a few more years, but time will tell us for sure.

Right now, my forecasting algorithms tell me the next 90 days should be mostly flat, but a significant move higher for a few weeks is not unlikely. My money is on a Cypriot-led pull-back and then I'm back in.


Bull/Bear + Turner CrossOver Oscillator Report...

The investor sentiment Bull-to-Bear ratio continues to remain more Bullish than Bearish with a 2-to-1 favoring of the Bulls this week. Keep in mind this is down from a 5-to-1 lopsided ratio last week, but the fact that it remains more Bullish than Bearish for a second week following the Turner CrossOver Oscillator crossing event of just a couple of weeks ago could be showing some strength growing in the Bullish trend; hence the increase in the Rating from +1 to +2 this week. The down-turn in the black line (Composite of Signals) is not indicating a downward trend is developing... not yet anyway. The black line is only slightly below the red line (total number of Short Sell Signals) and is giving a slight indication of bottoming. A bottoming action is seen as very Bullish. The time-cycle market forecasts are mostly Bullish very near-term showing some weakness starting in the next 3 weeks or so. But the NASDAQ giving an outlier 90-day strongly Bullish forecast. Risk is slightly elevated that the market will pull back, but the pull-back is forecast to be so inconsequential as to almost be ignored unless you have built up a lot of unrealized gains that you could consider protecting with tighter exit strategies. 

 

 

Turner Bull/Bear Forecast
For the Upcoming Week
Investor Sentiment Weekly Forecast
The Turner Bull/Bear Forecast™ provides a one-week directional forecast on the market with [-5] being the most Bearish and a [+5] being the most Bullish. This is predicated on the ratio of number of new Buy Signals to the number of new Short Sell Signals for the previous week. The assumption is investors are becoming more Bullish the more lopsided the ratio becomes in favor of new Buy Signals; and the converse is true; the more lopsided the ratio becomes in favor of new Short Sell Signals, the more Bearish investor sentiment.

 

 

Turner CrossOver Oscillator

 


Closing Thoughts...

As I mentioned earlier in this missive, do not be surprised if we see a sell-off early this week. If that happens, my plan is to fill my 4 remaining slots in the CycleProphet Trades portfolio.  I do not plan to release any new trades this week until either I see the Cyprus event is a non-event, or the market looks for some profit taking.

Have a great week in the market!

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

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