Wednesday, November 5, 2014 9:12 a.m. DAILY BEFORE the OPEN
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Daily:Boiling down fundamental, technical, economic,
monetary, fiscal, psychological, and seasonal data into a quick read.
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The Street is celebrating a mid-term Republican victory that gives it control of the U.S. Senate.
After its celebration, the Street will have to begin factoring in a new set of variables.
The politics of obstruction will have to give way to politics of results.
How these pols play their cards can be very bullish for stocks or trigger a bear market/recession and major new problems internally.
Time for everyone to holster their guns.
There are still serious negatives out there that can suddenly demand action (ISIS,Russia/Ukraine, deflation, soft economies abroad, our infrastructure here). A new one being how much the plunge in oil prices will adversely impact our nation’s oil exploration and development efforts if these levels persist.
Resistance: It’s hard to separate the impact of Q3 earnings from the Street’s celebration of Republican control of the U.S. Senate today, but a spike in the market should encounter resistance beginning at DJIA: 17,478; S&P 500: 2,027; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,653. Risks for buyers of a “gap” open are above average, i.e., the open price may not be much higher than the day’s close.
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Investor’s first read– Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,366
S&P 500: 2,012
Nasdaq Comp.: 4,623
Russell 2000:1,165
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BEST SIX MONTHS for OWNING STOCKS (Nov. 1 to May 1)*
This six months period has consistently outperformed the six months between May 1 and November 1, though both have been interrupted by counter moves.
It is important to consider the possibility that the six month period starting Monday will be an exception. This would not only go counter to the Best Six Months pattern, it would contradict the market’s bullish record for rising in pre-presidential election years.
If the Washington scene has been ugly and dysfunctional over the last four years, it stands to get even more so regardless of who comes out ahead next Tuesday. Just keep an open mind. None of these seasonal tendencies is infallible. These seasonal patterns, and others are presented in great detail in the Stock Trader’s Almanac – “must” reading.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EACH of 30 DOW INDUSTRIALS (10/30 close)
By technically analyzing each of the 30 Dow industrials then using the Dow “divisor” to convert the data back into the DJIA, I can get a better read on what is primary support and a secondary support.
As of the 10/8 close: Resistance 17,532; Primary Support: 17,052; and Secondary Support: 16,930.
NOTE: These calculations generally hold for longer periods of time, but need to be changed when the market is hit with excessive volatility.
The resistance and support levels listed daily may differ, since they are shorter term.
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THIS WEEK’s ECONOMIC REPORTS:
For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”
MONDAY:
PMI Mfg Ix. (9:45): Oct. index down to 55.9 from 57.5 in Sept.
ISM Mfg. Ix (10:00): Oct. up to 59.0 from56.6 in Sept..
Construction Spend (10:00): Sept. down 0.4 pct. after drop of 0.5 pct in Aug.
Global Mfg. Ix. (11:00): Sept. unchg. At 52.7
TUESDAY:
ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45:) Down 1.6 pct. in Nov 11, week vs. gain of 0.3 week prior; Year/year is +1.8 pct.
Factory Orders (10:00): Sept. down 0.6 pct. vs decline of 10.0 pct. revised Aug.
WEDNESDAY:
MBA Purchase Apps, Refi’s (7:00):
ADP Employment 8:15):
Fed’s Kockerlakota speaks (9:15):
Fed’s Lacker speaks (9:30):
PMI Services Ix.(9:45):
ISM Non-Mfg Ix (10:00):
Fed’s Rosengran speaks (10:00)
THURSDAY:
Jobless Claims (8:30):
Productiviy/Costs (8:30):
FRIDAY:
Employment Situation (8:30):
Consumer Credit (3:00):
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RECENT POSTS:
Oct. 20 DJIA 16,380 Critical Week for Bulls
Oct. 21 DJIA 16,399 Market Attacking Key Resistance
Oct. 22 DJIA 16,614 Just a Rally of End of the Correction ?
Oct. 23 DJIA 16,461 BIG Day for Economic Reports
Oct. 24 DJIA 16,677 DJIA – a Portfolio of Small Cap Stocks ?
Oct. 27 DJIA 16,805 Wednesday: Wall Street: Pass, or Fail
Oct. 28 DJIA 16,817 Bullard Bull !!
Oct. 29 DJIA 17,005 Fed Decision – Major Market Reaction ?
Oct. 30 DJIA 16,974 Interest Rate Angst Next
Oct. 31 DJIA 17,195 Raise Some Cash
Nov. 3 DJIA 17,390 New Era for Stocks ????
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
A Game-On Analysis, LL
“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.
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