Will the BIG Money Sell into Strength?

George Brooks |

ThursdaySeptember  18 , 2014     9:16 a.m.  BEFORE the OPEN


   The Street’s reaction to Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s press conference at 2:30 yesterday was restrained.  Today’s market action is key to the near-to-intermediate term trend in stock prices.

   The market appears to be unconcerned with international tensions, even the serious threat of ISIL. That can change if Russia crosses over into Ukraine.

    Also of little concern currently is the outcome of the mid-term elections in November.  That too can change in coming weeks.

    Since there is no press conference scheduled after the October 28-29 FOMC meeting and no meeting at all in November, the Street can stop worrying about a change in Fed policy for a couple of months.


    I still view a spike up in stock prices now as risky and believe odds are high for a correction  this month or next. While yesterday’s reaction to Yellen’s comments, a strong follow through should follow through today, possible 150 – 200 Dow points.  The key is, can the market hold the gain or does the BIG money use the rise to sell stocks.

Support todayis DJIA: 16,998; S&P 500: 1,982; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,540

Resistancetoday is DJIA: 17,240; S&P 500: 2,012; Nasdaq Comp. 4,587

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,156

S&P 500: 2,001

Nasdaq  Comp.:4,563   

Russell 2000: 1,153


THE FED: No  more  Yellen press conferences until Dec. 17

The Street wanted clarification on the Fed’s interpretation of interest rates remaining low for a “considerable time,” a term used since last March. They got it yesterday when Fed Chief Janet Yellen emphasized that rates are unlikely to rise quickly as the economy continues to improve, saying, “Even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may for some time warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the committee views as normal in the longer run.”

   The Fed projects a rise in the Federal Funds rate to 1.375 by the end of 2015




   Ukraine/Russia – quiet for now, but has the potential to get uglier.

   ISIS/Iraq/Syria – A Euro/Mid-East coalition is forming to counter ISIL’s territory and influence quest.

    This can get uglier than ugly where it is now. The possibility of a major war resulting must be considered.



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF EACH OF THE 30 DOW INDUSTRIALS (9/12)  At key junctures, I technically analyze each of the 30 Dow industrials, then using the Dow’s “divisor” convert these results back into the DJIA. I seek a near-term resistance level and a primary and secondary support level.

   As of  September 12, the near-term resistance level is 17,135; the primary support is 16,890 and secondary support is 16,500.



    The center of focus this week will be the FOMC meeting and Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday.  For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


Empire State Mfg. Svy (8:30): September index up to 27.14 from 14.69 in August.  New orders 16.86 up from 14.40

Industrial Production (9:15): August was down 0.1 pct. after a gain in July of 0.4 pct..


FOMC meeting begins

ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45): Dropped 2.6 pct in the Sept. 13 week over the prior week.  Year/year is +3.0 pct..

PPI-FD (8:30): Unchanged in July.  Ex food/energy was up 0.1 pct.  vs. increase of  0.2 pct. June.


MBA Purchase Mtge Purchase Apps: (7:00): Purchase apps rose 5.0 pct. in Sept. 12 week vs. drop of 3.0 pct. in the prior week. Refi’s rose 11.0 pct. after a drop of 11.0 pct. the prior week.

Consumer Price Ix.(8:30): Unchanged in August vs. a rise of 0.1 pct. in July

Housing Market Ix.(10:00): Sept. Index up to 59 from 55 in Aug..

FOMC announcement (2:00):

Fed press conference – Yellen (2:30):


Jobless Claims (8:30): Down 36,000 to 280,000 in the Sept. 13 week

Housing Starts (8:30): Down 14.4 pct. in Aug; Starts down 5.6 pct..

Philly Fed Svy (10:00)


Leading Indicators (10:00):

Quadruple Witching Friday



Sept.  2   DJIA  17,098  What are Odds of a Big Correction of 8% - 12% ?

Sept.  3   DJIA  17,067  Breakout and Run – Followed by a Crunch

Sept. 4    DJIA  17,078  Bulls “Must” Take Charge NOW

Sept. 5    DJIA  17,069  Market to Tip Its Hand Today

Sept. 8    DJIA  17,173  Bullish Storm Surge Imminent ?

Sept. 9    DJIA  17,111  Bulls to be Tested Today

Sept. 10  DJIA  17,013  Stock Market Back on the “Edge”

Sept, 11  DJIA  17,068  Last Chance for Bulls to Avoid Crunch

Sept. 12  DJIA  17,049  The Fed, Elections, Geopolitics Stymie Bulls

Sept. 15  DJIA  16,987  A Brief Yellen Rally This Week ?

Sept. 16  DJIA  17,031  Street Keying on Yellen’s Wednesday Comments

Sept. 17  DJIA  17,131  Yellen Rally Risky – Raise Some Cash

A Game-On Analysis,  LLC publication

George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”


Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.













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