While Stocks Are Likely to Inch Higher, Investors Should Beware of Sell-Off

Mike Turner |

The Cyprus event had me a bit spooked on Monday, which was a mistake on my part. My forecasts were telling me that the market was headed higher and had I listened to my technology instead of my fear of the seemingly ever present exogenous event that could cause this bull market to take a breather, I would have bought into that sell-off.  Instead, I sat on the sidelines and missed out on Tuesday's run-up.  Maybe I'll get a pull-back before the week is out so that I can buy into the dip.

Take a look at the 90-day time-cycle forecast, below:

If the forecast holds up (and they are generally accurate 62% to 72% of the time), then the market, as represented by the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), could gain another +4.5% by mid-May. But... and this is important to understand... our time-cycle forecasts are very good, but they are not photographs of the future. Do I rely on the CycleProphet forecasts to manage my trading strategies? You bet I do, but that's only because I know these forecasts provide me with an insight that I will not get from any other technical analysis or forecasting system. And, since my team of mathematicians and I are the people who created the algorithms used to make these forecasts, I have a lot of confidence in them. Then, when you add in the 10's of thousands of back-test studies we've done over the past 10 years on a myriad of tickers; all with amazingly high winning percentages, you can see why I use these charts... BUT THEY ARE NOT INFALLIBLE.

When I look at all of my forecasts of the global markets, the mosaic that gets painted is a market is likely to inch its way higher, but could suffer a rather anemic sell-off at most any time. Add in the never-want-to-see-the-market-fail mentality of the US Federal Reserve and the logic and QE seems to be in place to stay the course on the long side. Of course, I strongly recommend you use an intelligent stop loss strategy similar to the one that I use, which is implied volatility based.

If you are looking for segments of the market that are showing some rather decent up trends in the near-term, I like Energy, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Crude oil could have another 5% to 8% upside to it, according to the CycleProphet forecasts, topping out in late May.

And for you precious metals traders... the forecasts indicate tiny bounce higher for gold and silver over the next couple of weeks, followed by a steady sell-off lower, as much as 6% to 9% by mid-June.

In closing, I encourage you to sign up for my FREE TRADE OF THE WEEK. Every week, I'll be sending out my best pick for you to take a look at. I'll be using all my CycleProphet tools to screen for the top scoring and best forecast trend ticker I can find... and it's all FREE.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

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