What's Next for an Impatient Fed?

Mish Shedlock  |

As expected, the Fed has dropped their ‘Patient’ stance. According to Bloomberg, this "Opens Door to June Rate Increase". 

 The Federal Reserve dropped an assurance it will be “patient” in raising interest rates, ending an era in its communications policy and opening the door for higher borrowing costs as early as June.

“An increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April” meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday in Washington. The panel said it will be appropriate to tighten “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

Inflation is in the Eye of the Beholder

Inflation as measured by asset prices is rampant. However, inflation as measured by the Fed is actually negative, as evidenced by the graph below:

The experimental CPI, for those over 62 is in positive territory at 0.51% (See Experimental CPI Index; BLS Disclaimer vs. Mish Recommended Disclaimer).
That leaves us wondering about the nebulous definition of "medium term." Others may be scratching their heads over "further improvement in the labor market."
How much more improvement does the Fed want? Or does the Fed not believe all these glowing labor reports, either?

The Door's Open, But For What?

Given all the above mush, the door is open for the Fed to do whatever it wants. Actually, that's precisely as it has always been.
If you think anything meaningful changed in the Fed's statement, you are mistaken. The Fed always does what it wants, and makes up excuses over time in order to continue doing so. 


To learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies, visit Mike Shedlock’s blog. You can also easily find him simply by Googling “Mish.” 

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