Week's Economic Reports - Dow 17,000?

George Brooks |

TuesdayJuly  1, 2014      9:10 a.m.  BEFORE the OPEN

    The Street is digesting last week’s economic news, as well as unfolding news this week in an  attempt to assess the strength of the current post-winter recovery.

    So far, so good, but the recovery must be brisk to head off a correction.

Safe to say, the market is in limbo, with a slight edge given to the bulls.

    Ugly as the Mid-East situation is, it has had little impact on stock prices. Concern for a rise in interest rates is beginning to make its rounds, with Q1 or Q2 of 2015 targeted, depending on who you ask.


    I am still seeing a consolidation phase, a sideways trading range extending into the fall, but the upper end of that range has yet to be established. It could be expected to range within 4% to 6% between high and low, but it’s too early to tell.

    It would offer both traders and longer term investors opportunities, though timing of buys would be critical.

   Resistance levels set below may yield early in the trading day if momentum builds off a positive open. The catalyst would be today’s economic news (see below).  If the reports this week are especially good, look for DOW 17,000 by Friday.

Support today is DJIA: 16,778; S&P 500:1,957; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,398

Resistance today is DJIA: 16,861; S&P 500: 1,963; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,416

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,826                                   

S&P 500: 1, 960

Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,408

Russell 2000:   1,189




    At key junctures, I technically analyze each of the 30 Dow industrials seeking a reasonable near-term support and a more extreme support leyel, as well as a short-term resistance level. By technically studying the balances of buying and selling in each stock, then converting that data back to the DJIA using the “divisor” (0.1557159) I can get a better reading on the average itself.  The DJIA is a price-weighted average and subject to distortion by higher priced issues.

    On June 26 the DJIA rebounded from 16,746, about halfway between my “reasonable and “more extreme” levels, prompting me to re-calculate  the support/resistance levels again.

    As of June 27, they are : Reasonable support: 16,726, more extreme support: 16,564 and Resistance: 17,109.

        Note: My daily support/resistance  levels are more short-term oriented.



    Expect a full slate of reports in this shortened July 4 week with the key Employment Situation report coming  at 8:30 Thursday, preceded by the ADP Employment report as usual on Wednesday.

      For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


Chicago PMI (9:45): Declined to 62.6 in June  from 65.5 in May

Pending Home Sales (10:00): Up 6.1 pct. in June from  a gain of 0.4 pct. in May.

Dallas Fed Mfg.(10:30): Business Activity  index was 11.4 in June vs. 8.0 in May; the Production index was 15.5 in June vs 11.6


Motor Vehicle Sales

ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45)

PMI Mfg Ix.(9:45):

ISM Mfg. Ix.(10:00):

Construction Spend.(10:00):

Global Mfg. PMI (10:00):


MBA Purchase Apps.(7:00)

ADP Employment (8:15):

Gallup US Job Creation Ix. (8:30)

Factory Orders (10:00):


Employment Situation (8:20):

International Trade (8:30):

Jobless Claims (9:30):

PMI Services Ix. (9:45):

ISM Non- Mfg. Ix. (10:00):



June 12  DJIA   16,843  Sideways, 3-Month Trading Range Beginning ?

June 13  DJIA   16,734 Iraq Crisis to Create Buying Opportunity

June 16  DJIA   16,775 Uncertainty – A Menace to Stock Prices Near-Term

June 17  DJIA   16,781 Decision Day for Stock Prices – Near-Term

June 18  DJIA   16,808 Market Awaits a Fed QE Exit Strategy

June 19  DJIA   16,906 Wall Street Needs a Dose of Reality 

June 20  DJIA   16,921 Spike Up Likely, No Room for Rally Failure

June 23  DJIA   16,947 Spike, Correction – Opportunity

June 24  DJIA   16,937 Market to React to Week’s Economic Reports

June 25  DJIA   16,818 Major Challenge for Bulls

June 26  DJIA   16,867 Again – Bulls Challenged

June 27  DJIA 16,846   Near-Term Tipping Point for Stock Prices

June 30  DJIA 16,851  Stock Fever Festering

A Game-On Analysis,  LLC publication

George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”


Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized investment advice or as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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