Week’s Economic Reports – Dow 17,000?
Tuesday, July 1, 2014 9:10 a.m. BEFORE the OPEN
The Street is digesting last week’s economic news, as well as unfolding news this week in an attempt to assess the strength of the current post-winter recovery.
So far, so good, but the recovery must be brisk to head off a correction.
Safe to say, the market is in limbo, with a slight edge given to the bulls.
Ugly as the Mid-East situation is, it has had little impact on stock prices. Concern for a rise in interest rates is beginning to make its rounds, with Q1 or Q2 of 2015 targeted, depending on who you ask.
TODAY:
I am still seeing a consolidation phase, a sideways trading range extending into the fall, but the upper end of that range has yet to be established. It could be expected to range within 4% to 6% between high and low, but it’s too early to tell.
It would offer both traders and longer term investors opportunities, though timing of buys would be critical.
Resistance levels set below may yield early in the trading day if momentum builds off a positive open. The catalyst would be today’s economic news (see below). If the reports this week are especially good, look for DOW 17,000 by Friday.
Support today is DJIA: 16,778; S&P 500:1,957; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,398
Resistance today is DJIA: 16,861; S&P 500: 1,963; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,416
Investor’s first read– Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 16,826
S&P 500: 1, 960
Nasdaq Comp.: 4,408
Russell 2000: 1,189
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of 30 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
(UPDATED ANALYSIS: June 27)
At key junctures, I technically analyze each of the 30 Dow industrials seeking a reasonable near-term support and a more extreme support leyel, as well as a short-term resistance level. By technically studying the balances of buying and selling in each stock, then converting that data back to the DJIA using the “divisor” (0.1557159) I can get a better reading on the average itself. The DJIA is a price-weighted average and subject to distortion by higher priced issues.
On June 26 the DJIA rebounded from 16,746, about halfway between my “reasonable and “more extreme” levels, prompting me to re-calculate the support/resistance levels again.
As of June 27, they are : Reasonable support: 16,726, more extreme support: 16,564 and Resistance: 17,109.
Note: My daily support/resistance levels are more short-term oriented.
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THIS WEEK’s ECONOMIC REPORTS:
Expect a full slate of reports in this shortened July 4 week with the key Employment Situation report coming at 8:30 Thursday, preceded by the ADP Employment report as usual on Wednesday.
For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”
MONDAY:
Chicago PMI (9:45): Declined to 62.6 in June from 65.5 in May
Pending Home Sales (10:00): Up 6.1 pct. in June from a gain of 0.4 pct. in May.
Dallas Fed Mfg.(10:30): Business Activity index was 11.4 in June vs. 8.0 in May; the Production index was 15.5 in June vs 11.6
TUESDAY:
Motor Vehicle Sales
ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45)
PMI Mfg Ix.(9:45):
ISM Mfg. Ix.(10:00):
Construction Spend.(10:00):
Global Mfg. PMI (10:00):
WEDNESDAY:
MBA Purchase Apps.(7:00)
ADP Employment (8:15):
Gallup US Job Creation Ix. (8:30)
Factory Orders (10:00):
THURSDAY:
Employment Situation (8:20):
International Trade (8:30):
Jobless Claims (9:30):
PMI Services Ix. (9:45):
ISM Non- Mfg. Ix. (10:00):
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RECENT POSTS:
June 12 DJIA 16,843 Sideways, 3-Month Trading Range Beginning ?
June 13 DJIA 16,734 Iraq Crisis to Create Buying Opportunity
June 16 DJIA 16,775 Uncertainty – A Menace to Stock Prices Near-Term
June 17 DJIA 16,781 Decision Day for Stock Prices – Near-Term
June 18 DJIA 16,808 Market Awaits a Fed QE Exit Strategy
June 19 DJIA 16,906 Wall Street Needs a Dose of Reality
June 20 DJIA 16,921 Spike Up Likely, No Room for Rally Failure
June 23 DJIA 16,947 Spike, Correction – Opportunity
June 24 DJIA 16,937 Market to React to Week’s Economic Reports
June 25 DJIA 16,818 Major Challenge for Bulls
June 26 DJIA 16,867 Again – Bulls Challenged
June 27 DJIA 16,846 Near-Term Tipping Point for Stock Prices
June 30 DJIA 16,851 Stock Fever Festering
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
George Brooks
“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized investment advice or as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.
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