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Volatility: Q3 Earnings, ISIS, The Fed, Elections

Tuesday, October  7, 2014     8:58 a.m.  BEFORE the OPEN

Tuesday, October  7, 2014     8:58 a.m.  BEFORE the OPEN


Daily: Boiling down fundamental, technical, economic, monetary, fiscal, psychological, and seasonal data into a quick read.


    Bulls hung on yesterday, but the market is nervous about Q3 earnings and beyond. The strong U.S. dollar stands to adversely impact earnings of some multi-national companies.

    While the Street’s focus will be on corporate earnings this month, the combined impact of the IS, weakness in economies abroad, the Fed’s last bond purchase this month, the timing of an increase in interest rates, and mid-term elections give investors a lot to think about.

    The market has rebounded sharply over the last three days, giving the Bulls reason to believe the correction is over.

    Odds favor a sideways trend with slight upward bias going forward, BUT this is October and all bets are off.  Bear markets started in October 1983 and 2007. Bear markets ended in  1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2002.


 With a plate full of uncertainties like that, volatility stands to dominate trading in coming weeks. A  break below DJIA 16,795; S&P 500: 1,947; Nasdaq Comp. 4,404 flash a serious warning signal about another leg down.

Minor supporttoday is: DJIA: 16,951; S&P 500: 1,960; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,442.

Resistance todayis: DJIA: 17,076; S&P 500: 1,971; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,472.


Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 16,9911

S&P 500: 1,964                                

Nasdaq  Comp.:4,454

Russell 2000: 1,094



By technically analyzing each of the 30 Dow industrials then using the Dow “divisor” to convert the data back into the DJIA, I can get a better read on what is primary support and a secondary support.

   As of the 10/3 close: Resistance 17,260; Primary Support: 16,824; and Secondary Support: 16,741.

   The resistance and support levels listed daily may differ, since they are shorter term.



   Ukraine/Russia – Quiet for now, but has the potential to get uglier.

   ISIS/Iraq/Syria – A Euro/Mid-East coalition has formed to counter ISIL. A full-blown bombing mission has been undertaken, which stands to be ongoing. Psychologically, that stands to play well in America, which has been warned of future terrorist activity. The possibility of a major war resulting must be considered.



    Light week for reports on the economy.  FOMC meeting, minutes released Wednesday, but no press conference   For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45):

Consumer Credit (3:00):

FOMC Meeting begins


MBA Purchase Apps/ Refi’s (7:00):

FOMC Minutes (2:00):  No Press Conference


Jobless Claims (8:30):

Wholesale Trade (10:00):


Import Export Prices (8;30):




Sept, 24  DJIA  17,055  Critical Crossroads for Money Managers

Sept. 25  DJIA  17,210  Back to Tug of War  – Bulls vs. Bears

Sept  26  DJIA  16,945  Moment of Truth for Market’s Direction

Sept. 29  DJIA  17,113  Huge Test for Bulls Today

Sept. 30  DJIA  17,071  Big Move in Market  for Winner of Tug of W ar

Oct.  1    DJIA  17,042  October – Risk or Opportunity ?

Oct.  2    DJIA  16,804  October Opportunity But Angst in Interim

Oct.  3    DJIA  16,801  Rally Today Must Hold

Oct.  6    DJIA  17,009  Best Six Months for Owning Stocks Looms ?

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

A Game-On Analysis,  LLC publication

George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”

[email protected]

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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