Uncertainty Over Fed Tapering Looms

George Brooks |

The market got a small boost yesterday from an announcement by Standard & Poor’s  which raised  is U.S. outlook to Stable from Negative, as it noted  it saw a lessening risk to its AA+ rating for U.S. sovereign debt.
   Obviously, the Street is nervous about a rise in interest rates.  Put in perspective though, rates must rise at some point. While a jump in interest rates will have an initial  negative impact on a market that has run up 146% from its bear market bottom in early March 2009 and up 15% this year alone, the market has demonstrated in the past it can move up in tandem with interest rates to a point where rates impact the economy. That damn well better be many percentage points higher than they are now.  It’s not that we are  going from single-digit rates to double-digit rates.
   So yes, rising rates can  have an impact, but it shouldn’t be lasting. The market may well be anticipating that event now, though well in advance.
TODAY:
   Based on pre-market trading in the stock-index futures, the market will open down.
The DJIA looks like it can drop to the DJIA 15,160 area (S&P 500: 1,634) in early trading. Odds favor a rally from there to DJIA 15,195 (S&P 500: 1,637) followed by a drop to DJIA 15,090 (S&P 500: 1,624).
   What we are seeing here is a correction to the sharp three-day rebound that started last Thursday, which in part was based on relief by the Street that the U.S. economic recovery is not robust enough to prompt the Fed to back away from its low-interest rate/ stimulus policy (so it thinks). The Street may have second thoughts now, or at least is not sure.
   Uncertainty, may be the drumbeat the market marches to in coming months.
   Remember when the Street worried about an economic recovery, fearful of a double-dip ?  Now it worries about too much of a recovery.
  How does a new student of the market make any sense of this ?
   The Bulls didn’t go away. This weak opening will attract buyers. Should they be able to totally reverse this morning’s weakness and close the day  with a one-day reversal (at the highs for the day), it would be a strong signal of their resolve.

Investor’s first read – an edge before the open
DJIA:  15,238.59
S&P 500:  1,642.81
Nasdaq  Comp.: 3,473.76
Russell 2000: 992.67
Tuesday, June 11, 2013         (9:08 a.m.)
   NOTE: I am considering adding stocks to this blog, but haven’t decided on a format. I picked up Facebook  when it was $34 shortly after its $38 IPO because I thought it was enormously overpriced and wanted to target a bottom for  its imminent decline, which I did at $18.  Likewise, AAPL when it was in a tailspin at  $540 late last year.  I write this letter between 8:30 and 9:12 after reading  morning news starting at  7 a.m. Overnight news can impact the market, as well as stocks, so I can’t work too far in advance. I like to get a look at pre-market trading in both the stock market and individual stocks per chance there is a change shortly before the open.  This keeps commentary on stocks on a short leash !
 Apple (AAPL: $438.89)
AAPL ran into resistance  at $449 yesterday after a 5-point pop at the open.
.in spite of excitement over its launch of its new version of software that powers its iPhones and iPads at an annual developers’ conference yesterday.  The rally failure changed a positive pattern to neutral. Support is now $434 - $436.  Failure to hold counts to $423.
FACEBOOK (FB - $24.33)
FB gapped at the open yesterday, moving across 24 before  running out of steam. Volume was much improved.  The move indicates FB’s test of the $23 level is behind it, though it could drop to $23.66 briefly. Resistance starts at
ECONOMY:
We have a light schedule for economic reports this week. For access to information including charts and graphics go to www.mam.econoday.com .  Great site !
TUESDAY:
NFIB Small Business Optimism (7:30)
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45)
JOLTS (10:00)  - “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” proj: 3.844 mil. for
     March vs, 3,899 in Feb.
Wholesale Trade (10:00)  Proj: +0.2% for Apr. 13
WEDNESDAY:
Treasury Budget (2:00) – showed a $112.9 bil. surplus in Apr.
THURSDAY:
Jobless Claims (8:30)   Proj. 350,000 for week Jun 8
Retail Sales (8:30)  Proj. +0.4% for week May 13
Import/Export Prices (8:30)  Proj:  flat
Business Inventories (10:00)  Proj. +0.3%
FRIDAY:
Producer Prices (8:30)  Proj. +0.2%
Current Account (8:30)   Proj. minus $111.2 bil.
Industrial Production (9:15)   +0.2%
Consumer Sentiment (9:15)   Proj.  84.5
 George  Brooks
“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”
sensiblesleuth@gmail.com

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

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Symbol Name Price Change % Volume
NYMT New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 6.88 0.07 1.03 912,078

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