UK GDP growth report to show economy slowing ahead of Brexit - business live

Guardian Web |

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It's UK GDP Day

Good morning.

Gross Domestic Product isn’t a perfect measure. And that’s no wonder -- how can a single number sum up everything, good and bad, that happens in an economy?

GDP can’t distinguish between activity that’s actively harmful, and that which makes our lives better. It struggles to cope with the internet, isn’t great at measuring improvements in services, and can’t cope with unpaid work at all.

But despite these flaws, GDP is the ‘go-to’ measure for policymakers who want to know how their economy is faring. And today, Britain’s economy is in the spotlight.

GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2018, due at , are expected to show a sharp slowdown. Economists predict that the economy only grew by around 0.3% in October-December, just half as fast as the 0.6% recorded during the heatwave of July-September.

Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, predicts that the economy may not have grown in December at all.

“Putting the pieces together, we are forecasting GDP to have remained unchanged in December, although it is possible that we see a very small gain,” he said. “This results in a 0.3% rise [for the fourth quarter].

“We will look closely at business investment – the area which we consider to be the most affected by Brexit worries – and specifically to see if it recorded its fourth consecutive quarterly decline in the fourth quarter.”

Here’s Angela Monaghan’s preview:

Related: UK economic growth expected to halve in final quarter of 2018

Such muted growth would reinforce concerns that the UK, and the wider global economy, is weakening. Brexit, the US-China trade wars, and political tensions in the eurozone will all be blamed.

Today’s report will show how manufacturing, services and construction all fared in the last quarter. The Office for National Statistics will also report new trade figures, giving a decent picture of the health of the economy as we prepare for Brexit.

The agenda
  • : UK GDP report for Q4 2018 released
  • : UK trade balance for December

block-time updated-timeUpdated at

339 2019-02-14T07:00:00Z true 2019-02-11T07:55:33Z false false 2019-02-11T07:57:38Z true UK theguardian.com

https://gu.com/p/ayhx8 false true https://media.guim.co.uk/abe414373f5441763d534666150da81dd61667f5/0_448_6720_4032/500.jpg false en Good morning. Gross Domestic Product isn’t a perfect measure. And that’s no wonder -- how can a single number sum up everything, good and bad, that happens in an economy? GDP can’t distinguish between activity that’s actively harmful, and that which makes our lives better. It struggles to cope with the internet, isn’t great at measuring improvements in services, and can’t cope with unpaid work at all. But despite these flaws, GDP is the ‘go-to’ measure for policymakers who want to know how their economy is faring. And today, Britain’s economy is in the spotlight. GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2018, due at , are expected to show a sharp slowdown. Economists predict that the economy only grew by around 0.3% in October-December, just half as fast as the 0.6% recorded during the heatwave of July-September. Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, predicts that the economy may not have grown in December at all. “Putting the pieces together, we are forecasting GDP to have remained unchanged in December, although it is possible that we see a very small gain,” he said. “This results in a 0.3% rise [for the fourth quarter]. “We will look closely at business investment – the area which we consider to be the most affected by Brexit worries – and specifically to see if it recorded its fourth consecutive quarterly decline in the fourth quarter.” Here’s Angela Monaghan’s preview: Such muted growth would reinforce concerns that the UK, and the wider global economy, is weakening. Brexit, the US-China trade wars, and political tensions in the eurozone will all be blamed. Today’s report will show how manufacturing, services and construction all fared in the last quarter. The Office for National Statistics will also report new trade figures, giving a decent picture of the health of the economy as we prepare for Brexit. The agenda : UK GDP report for Q4 2018 released : UK trade balance for false false Apartments and cranes on the city centre skyline in Manchester.

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