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The Last Days of a Mature Bull

DJIA the Final Index to Top-Out Yesterday we saw the Dow Jones Industrials push into record high territory. But the lone bird blue chip index was unaccompanied by the other members of the Big Six:
Studying the chart history of any stock, index, or commodity will reveal that each market has a series of cyclical profiles that affect price movement. Cycles are the essential factor in forecasting how long a trend should run and when to expect reversals. Their understanding and exploitation provides an overwhelming edge to the successful trader. Stan Harley’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles – their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking, and exploitation for investment and trading. He will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. Stan will provide attendees with the mathematical tools he uses to calculate – and forecast – cyclical highs and lows and be prepared to buy or sell. Throughout our discussions, Stan will present a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond, precious metals, and housing markets. Stan Harley’s career has spanned investment advisory services, defense/aerospace, and military service. A California registered investment adviser since 1991, Stan publishes The Harley Market Letter, which employs advanced technical analysis of the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and other sectors of interest. The Harley Market Letter has been ranked by Timer Digest as Stock Market Timer of the Year and Bond Market Timer of the Year in 1998, 2001, and 2010. Mr. Harley’s work has been featured in Barron's, Investors' Business Daily, The Los Angeles Times, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other national media publications. Stan is also a frequent guest market analyst on radio, television, and streaming internet audio/video web sites. He can be reached at (805)-484-4258 or e-mail [email protected] Information can also be found at: http://www.harleymarketletter.com/.
Studying the chart history of any stock, index, or commodity will reveal that each market has a series of cyclical profiles that affect price movement. Cycles are the essential factor in forecasting how long a trend should run and when to expect reversals. Their understanding and exploitation provides an overwhelming edge to the successful trader. Stan Harley’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles – their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking, and exploitation for investment and trading. He will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. Stan will provide attendees with the mathematical tools he uses to calculate – and forecast – cyclical highs and lows and be prepared to buy or sell. Throughout our discussions, Stan will present a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond, precious metals, and housing markets. Stan Harley’s career has spanned investment advisory services, defense/aerospace, and military service. A California registered investment adviser since 1991, Stan publishes The Harley Market Letter, which employs advanced technical analysis of the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and other sectors of interest. The Harley Market Letter has been ranked by Timer Digest as Stock Market Timer of the Year and Bond Market Timer of the Year in 1998, 2001, and 2010. Mr. Harley’s work has been featured in Barron's, Investors' Business Daily, The Los Angeles Times, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other national media publications. Stan is also a frequent guest market analyst on radio, television, and streaming internet audio/video web sites. He can be reached at (805)-484-4258 or e-mail [email protected] Information can also be found at: http://www.harleymarketletter.com/.

DJIA the Final Index to Top-Out

Yesterday we saw the Dow Jones Industrials push into record high territory. But the lone bird blue chip index was unaccompanied by the other members of the Big Six: S&P 500, Dow Transports, New York Composite, NASDAQ Composite, the Russell 2000.  Tuesday’s 52 week New High / New Low tally: 121 New Highs, 126 New Lows – more new lows than new highs – with only 3.71% of stocks in the New High category. What we have here is a very mature bull market whose membership in the new high club is thinning by the day. This market is running out of rocket fuel.

The daily chart of the DJIA depicts an index that has pushed to the upper pattern boundary of a 1 X 1 angular channel that has defined the price structure for this index over the last 18 months. Price closed yesterday right on the upper 1 X 1.

My indicator that depicts my 7/14/40 day measures of price velocity for the S&P 500 (not pictured) has both the 7 day and 14 day components trending south. I believe the final high is imminent.

Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the Harley Market Letter for December. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter.

As the markets put the debt ceiling debacle in the rearview mirror, more than a few issues remain open.