The Last Days of a Mature Bull

Stan Harley |

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DJIA the Final Index to Top-Out

Yesterday we saw the Dow Jones Industrials push into record high territory. But the lone bird blue chip index was unaccompanied by the other members of the Big Six: S&P 500, Dow Transports, New York Composite, NASDAQ Composite, the Russell 2000.  Tuesday’s 52 week New High / New Low tally: 121 New Highs, 126 New Lows - more new lows than new highs - with only 3.71% of stocks in the New High category. What we have here is a very mature bull market whose membership in the new high club is thinning by the day. This market is running out of rocket fuel.

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The daily chart of the DJIA depicts an index that has pushed to the upper pattern boundary of a 1 X 1 angular channel that has defined the price structure for this index over the last 18 months. Price closed yesterday right on the upper 1 X 1.

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My indicator that depicts my 7/14/40 day measures of price velocity for the S&P 500 (not pictured) has both the 7 day and 14 day components trending south. I believe the final high is imminent.

Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the Harley Market Letter for December. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter.

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