The Trump Effect on Currencies
Targeting companies or entire nations on Twitter is an unprecedented and controversial method of communication for a President-elect – but one can’t argue with its effectiveness so far.
In today’s chart, we take a look at Donald Trump’s rather unconventional form of “monetary policy”, and how it has affected the U.S. dollar and five other major currencies since his election in November.
Ready, Aim, Tweet
A preview of President-elect Trump’s “America First” directive can already be seen on Twitter.
Trump’s infamous account, which is followed by 18.8 million people, is being used every day to highlight the potential winners and losers of future policies.
And markets are listening.
| Currency | % Change (vs. USD) |
|---|---|
| Russian Ruble | 7.7% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.4% |
| Chinese Yuan | -1.5% |
| Euro | -5.0% |
| Mexican Peso | -13.4% |
The above table shows change in the value of foreign currencies against the US dollar between November 7th, 2016 and today. To be fair, it is worth noting that oil prices have also rallied over this time, and oil also has a pronounced effect on some currencies.
Individual Cases
Central to “America First” is a Trump-branded form of protectionism, which aims to keep jobs and dollars in the US at all costs. The President-elect has repeatedly blasted China for currency manipulation, as well as automotive companies which seek to produce cars in Mexico.
China, as one of the world’s major economic powers, has some leeway in any war of words with Trump. While the country sends 18% of its exports to the United States, it could also theoretically benefit economically with the US taking a step back from foreign entanglements. China also holds $1.12 trillion of US treasuries, which gives it some additional leverage.
On the other hand, Mexico has a lot more to worry about. The country sends 80.3% of its exports north of the border and could conceivably lose significant amounts of business if NAFTA is scrapped and tariffs are re-introduced. As a result, even with oil’s gains over the last two months, the peso has dropped -13.4% in value since Trump’s election in November.
An Unlikely Friend
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Trump has been making moves to warm up relations with Russia – a protectionist country that isn’t really a “threat” to US jobs.
Russia, which has been on Trump’s “good side” so far, has had its ruble trade 7.7% higher since the election. These gains partially reflect the future easing of sanctions that were put in place after Moscow’s aggression toward Ukraine in 2014.
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