Street to Look Ahead to Q4 and Q1, 2014

George Brooks |

   So far, the Street likes Q2 reports.  At this juncture, expectations for Q4 and Q1 of 2014, are the key to a big rise or fall in stock prices.

   Market action suggests the bulls are in charge.  A correction is a high possibility between now and October, which would be a nice set-up for the  “best six months for owning stocks (Nov.1 to May 1).”*

   The biggest negative here is the fact the market has risen 7.5% in less than four weeks without a meaningful correction, and it did so in response to assurances By  FRB presidents that any taper out of bond purchases would not reflect a tightening of credit. While the Street may buy that, any change in a five-year policy stands to have repercussions, warranted, or not.

Investor’s first readan edge before the open

DJIA:  15,567.74

S&P 500: 1,692.39

Nasdaq  Comp.: 3,579.27

Russell 2000:  1,052.20

Wednesday, July 24, 2013         (9:10 a.m.)

   Apple(AAPL: $ 418.99) At the close, but stock soared in trading after the report.

   AAPL will open up close to $20 a share this morning following earnings released after the close yesterday.  While Q2 revenues were flat and earnings down 20%, the latter “beat” the Street’s projections.  iPhone sales were the surprise, up 20% vs. a year ago..

   Analysts will be revisiting estimates and we can expect some changes in ratings.  AAPL has confirmed a double bottom at $385 and can be expected to attack resistance between $460 and $470, but not in a straight line. Support rises to $429

FACEBOOK (FB - $ 26.13)

Earnings are due today. Resistance is $26.25, Support $26, but the report will call the shot.

 

I DO NOT OWN, NOR HAVE I EVER OWNED APPLE OR FB.

 

ECONOMY:  Economic reports continue to reflect a slowly improving economy, not anything that would prompt a change in the Fed’s policy of accommodation. Any acceleration in this tempo will raise concern that the Fed will begin to withdraw from its bond buying program.

   While the Fed believes the Street now “get’s it,” that taper is not tightening, investors cannot be convinced of that, clearly not after the plunge in stock and bond markets after Bernanke’s June 19 comments about tapering starting in Q4 and ending in mid-2014.

   For a detailed account of past and current economic reports, including charts go to: mam.econoday.com

 

WEDNESDAY:

PMI Mfg Ix. (8:58)    Proj.: 52.8 July vs. 51.9 June

New Home Sales (10:00)    Proj.: 481,000 rate  June vs. 476,000 MAy

THURSDAY:

Durable Goods Orders (8:30)   Proj.:  +1.5 pct  June  vs. +3.7 pct May. Ex-trans +0.6 pct June

Jobless Claims (8:30)  Proj.:  341,000 (7/20/13)  vs. 334,000 prior week

Kansas City Fed Mfg. Ix. (11:00)  Proj.: unchg  vs. minus an index oif 5 in JUne

FRIDAY:

Consumer Sentiment (9:55)  Proj.: 84.0 July

www.mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

  George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”

sensiblesleuth@gmail.com

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The writer of  Investor’s first read, George Brooks,  is not registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

Companies

Symbol Name Price Change % Volume
FDHC Fidelity Holding Corp 4.10 0.00 0.00 3

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