At www.ValuEngine.com we show that the Oils-Energy sector is 3.2% undervalued, with the Oil & Gas US Exploration & Production industry 9.2% undervalued. All eleven of the stocks in today’s table have complete ValuEngine data and have enough price data to have most value levels, risky levels and pivots.
Abraxas Petroleum Corp. (AXAS) – has been below $6.50 for at least five years.
Callon Petroleum Co. (CPE) – has been below $10 since the week of November 21, 2008.
Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM) – poked above $10 briefly on February 24, 2012, but under $10 for at least five years other than that date.
Forest Oil Corporation (FST) – has only been below $10 since May 16, 2012.
Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (HNR) – has been below $10 since the week of November 25, 2011.
Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG) – was below $10 for at least four years until a brief period between in the first quarter of 2012.
Saratoga Resources Inc. (SARA) – the chart shows a one-day open at $11.00 on May 19, 2011.
SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SD) – was a $69 stock in July 2008 and has been below $10 since the week of August 12, 2011.
Synergy Resources Corporation (SYRG) – has been below $10 for at least five years, except for a test of $10.01 in January 2010.
Warren Resources Inc. (WRES) – has been below $10 since the week of October 10, 2008.
EXCO Resources Inc. (XCO) – was a $40 stock in July 2008, and has been below $10 since January 9, 2012.
Reading the Table
OV / UN Valued – The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine. The most undervalued stock in today’s table is XCO by 41.1%. The most overvalued stock is SYRG by 39.4%.
VE Rating – A “1-Engine” rating is a Strong Sell, a “2-Engine” rating is a Sell, a “3-Engine” rating is a Hold, a “4-Engine” rating is a Buy and a “5-Engine” rating is a Strong Buy. We have two Buy rated stocks (HNR & WRES) and nine Hold rated stocks.
Last 12-Month Return (%) – Stocks with a Red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage over the past twelve months! The biggest winner over the last twelve months is SYRG with a gain of 79.3%. The biggest loser is SARA with a loss of 50.8%.
Forecast 1-Year Return – Stocks with a Red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a Black number in the Table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months. The best performer is expected to be HNR but only with a gain of 6.7%. The biggest loser is projected to be AXAS with loss of just 0.2%.
P/E Ratios – HNR has a single-digit twelve month trailing P/E ratio. Three have reasonable P/E ratios. Seven have elevated P/E ratios.
Value Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual.
Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that acts as a magnet during the time frame noted.
Risky Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength.
Where to Buy and Where to Sell
A “Value Level” is a price at which buyers should add to positions on market price weakness. A “Risky Level” is a price at which sellers should reduce holdings on market price gains. A "Pivot" is a support or resistance (Value Level or Risky Level) that was violated in its time horizon, acting as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon. These levels are calculated in weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most important element of my Buy and Trade Strategy.
Buy and Trade Guidelines
Investors should consider entering good until cancelled (GTC) orders to buy weakness to a value level, or to sell strength to a risky level.