Stocks Under $10: How Overvalued Is Groupon?

Richard Suttmeier |

Stocks Under $10: How Overvalued Is Groupon?At www.ValuEngine.com we show that the Retail-Wholesale sector 11.2% overvalued with the Internet Commerce industry 1.6% undervalued and the Mail Order industry 49.6% overvalued. All 10 stocks in today’s table have complete ValuEngine data and have enough price data to have most value levels, risky levels and pivots.

Autobytel Inc. (ABTL) – has been below $10 since the week of June 6, 2008.
Coldwater Creek Inc. (CWTR) – was above $100 per share in June 2007, and below $10 since the week of May 27, 2011.
dELiA*s, Inc. (DLIA) – has been below $10 since the week of April 13, 2007.
1-800-Flowers.com Inc. (FLWS) – has been below $10 since the week of December 14, 2007.
Gaiam Inc. (GAIA) – was a $30 stock in December 2007 and has been below $10 since the week of October 10, 2008.
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) – traded above $31 as an IPO in November 2011 and has been below $10 since the week of July 13, 2012.
Nautilus Inc. (NLS) – has been below $10 since the week of August 17, 2007.
Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (OWW) – has been below $10 since the week of December 28, 2007.
Vitacost.com, Inc. (VITC) – has been below $10 since the week of August 6, 2010.
World Energy Solutions, Inc. (XWES) – has been below $10 since the week of July 18, 2008.

Stocks Under 10 How Overvalued Is Groupon

Reading the Table

OV / UN Valued – The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine. The most undervalued stock is CWTR by 52.3%. The most overvalued stock is GRPN by 80.3%.

VE Rating – A “1-Engine” rating is a Strong Sell, a “2-Engine” rating is a Sell, a “3-Engine” rating is a Hold, a “4-Engine” rating is a Buy and a “5-Engine” rating is a Strong Buy. One stock (FLWS) is rated Buy, seven are rated Hold, and two are rated Sell (CWTR & GRPN).

Last 12-Month Return (%) – Stocks with a Red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage over the past twelve months! The biggest winner over the last twelve months is NLS with a gain of 112.6%. The biggest loser was GRPN with a loss of 69.5%.

Forecast 1-Year Return – Stocks with a Red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a Black number in the Table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months. These stocks are projected to have performances between a loss of 7.7% (GRPN) to a gain of 5.1% (FLWS).

P/E Ratios – The twelve month trailing P/E ratios range from 16.1 to 428.8 (GRPN).

Value Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that acts as a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength.

Where to Buy and Where to Sell

A “Value Level” is a price at which buyers should add to positions on market price weakness. A “Risky Level” is a price at which sellers should reduce holdings on market price gains. A "Pivot" is a support or resistance (Value Level or Risky Level) that was violated in its time horizon, acting as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon.  These levels are calculated in weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most important element of my Buy and Trade Strategy.

Buy and Trade Guidelines

Investors should consider entering good until cancelled (GTC) orders to buy weakness to a value level, or to sell strength to a risky level.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

Companies

Symbol Name Price Change % Volume
ABTL Autobytel Inc. 16.64 -0.47 -2.75 37,242
GAIA Gaiam Inc. 7.60 -0.27 -3.43 37,607
GRPN Groupon Inc. 5.18 -0.14 -2.63 3,571,419
OKS ONEOK Partners L.P. 38.69 0.04 0.10 495,278
XWES World Energy Solutions Inc. (DE) n/a n/a n/a 0

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