At www.ValuEngine.com we show that the Retail-Wholesale sector 12.9% overvalued. All 12 stocks in today’s table have complete ValuEngine data and have enough price data to have most value levels, risky levels and pivots.
Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc. (BBW) – has been below $10 since the week of May 16, 2008.
Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) – has been below $10 since the week of September 21, 2007.
Hastings Entertainment Inc. (HAST) – has been below $10 for at least five years with a low of $1.26 in December 2008.
Navarre Corp. (NAVR) – has been below $4.50 for at least five years.
China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. (NPD) – has been below $10 since the week of July 4, 2008.
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. (PRTS) – has been below $10 since the week of March 30, 2007. Traded as low as $1.00 in November 2008 and as high as $9.97 in January 2011.
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) – has been below $6.75 for at least five years.
Roundy’s, Inc. (RNDY) – has been below $10 since the week of August 17, 2012.
RadioShack Corp. (RSH) – was a $34 stock in July 2007 and had been below $10 since the week of February 10, 2012.
SUPERVALU Inc. (SVU) – was a $49 stock in July 2007 and has been below $10 since the week of June 10, 2011.
TravelCenters of America, LLC (TA) – was a $47 stock in June 2007 and has been below $10 since the week of February 25, 2011.
Zale Corp. (ZLC) – was a $42 stock in September 2008 and has been below $10 since the week of November 28, 2011.
Reading the Table
OV/UN Valued – The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine. The most undervalued stock is ZLC by 62.1%. The most overvalued stock is HAST by 67.3%.
VE Rating – A “1-Engine” rating is a Strong Sell, a “2-Engine” rating is a Sell, a “3-Engine” rating is a Hold, a “4-Engine” rating is a Buy and a “5-Engine” rating is a Strong Buy. Two stocks (NAVR & TA) are rated Buy, eight stocks are rated Hold, and two stocks are rated Sell (HAST & RSH).
Last 12-Month Return (%) – Stocks with a Red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage over the past twelve months! The biggest winner over the last twelve months is BLDR with a gain of 103.7%. The biggest loser was PRTS with a loss of 60.9%.
Forecast 1-Year Return – Stocks with a Red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a Black number in the Table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months. These stocks are projected to be between 10.0% lower (RSH) and 6.4% higher (TA) over the next twelve months.
P/E Ratios – The twelve month trailing P/E ratios range; We have three with single-digit P/E ratios, (RNDY, SVU & TA) with one an extremely elevated P/E ratio at 184.5 (BBW).
Value Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual.
Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that acts as a magnet during the time frame noted.
Risky Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength.
Where to Buy and Where to Sell
A “Value Level” is a price at which buyers should add to positions on market price weakness. A “Risky Level” is a price at which sellers should reduce holdings on market price gains. A “Pivot” is a support or resistance (Value Level or Risky Level) that was violated in its time horizon, acting as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon. These levels are calculated in weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most important element of my Buy and Trade Strategy.
Buy and Trade Guidelines
Investors should consider entering good until cancelled (GTC) orders to buy weakness to a value level, or to sell strength to a risky level.
[Image via Flickr]