Stock Indexes Stuck Under Resistance What Next?

As we close out this very successful week of trading, we wanted to provide some additional analysis and research regarding our belief for what next week holds. Before we get into the analysis for next week, let’s take a bit of time to recap this week’s success from the previous market forecast post we shared here .

Recent trades, UGAZ, FAS, and TECL have been rocketing higher – as we predicted. On friday, we closed our TECL position to lock in the 18.3% gains with the intent to re-enter with new trade opportunities as our strategies tell us. The single point of success for all of us is to manage our assets well in an attempt to achieve greater long-term success. We are still holding the other trades open for larger gains next week.

Now, onto our research and analysis. This Daily SPY chart shows us that price has already breached the recent price peak level – indicating that an attempt to push to new price highs should continue. Yet, the downward sloping resistance level (in YELLOW) is the current boundary for price and price has stalled at this level. This is to be expected after such a nice run upward and with price reaching this resistance level. We do expect price to advance much higher over the next few weeks, but we are also aware that price may rotate a bit near this level before attempting to breakout to the upside.

This Daily Transportation chart shows the opposite side of the bullish breakout – where pricehas broken the downward sloping resistance channel (drawn in RED) yet has not broken the most recent price peak level. Again, price MUST attempt to establish new price highs or lows based on Fibonacci price theory. Although a recent intermediate price peak has been broken, we would like to see technical confirmation that the major price peak is breached to confirm that the upside trend will extend further.

This week, we sent an update that included the Weekly YM ADL predictions (below). We want to stress that as long as the ADL system is predicting much higher price targets and current price levels stay dramatically away from these predicted targets, we are seeing a “price anomaly” pattern setting up. We have seen many of these over the past few weeks and months. When these types of patterns setup, price usually breaks towards the predicted price levels VERY QUICKLY & VIOLENTLY (very much like what happened in early February with the dramatic price drop).

We believe the reason for this is that price should be nearer to the predicted ADL levels and, when the price anomaly pattern sets up, the external pricing factors that are preventing pricefrom nearing the ADL levels is in control of price. As price finally breaks free of these external factors, price will attempt to “recover” towards the predicted price level and this move can sometimes be very quick (and profitable).

Be prepared over the next few weeks as we try to guide our followers towards some incredible profits. We are still waiting for technical confirmation of this breakout, but it should not be long now.

Be safe. This has been a great week and next week should be just as good!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com