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Short-Term Uncertainty, Topping Pattern or Just Profit-Taking Action?

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,740, marked by mid-March local high. The next resistance level is at 2,780-2,800, marked by some previous local hi...

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.4% on Friday, as investors hesitated following recent run-up. The S&P 500 index slightly extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above 2,700 mark on Thursday. It currently trades 5.1% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged on Friday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,740, marked by mid-March local high. The next resistance level is at 2,780-2,800, marked by some previous local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 2,700-2,705, marked by recent resistance level and Thursday’s daily gap up of 2,701.27-2,704.54. The next level of support remains at 2,680-2,685, marked by previous local high.

The broad stock market extended its short-term uptrend last week, as the S&P 500 index broke above the level of 2,700 again. Will this run-up continue towards 2,800? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios – bearish that will lead us below February low following trend line breakdown, and the bullish one in a form of medium-term double top pattern or breakout towards 3,000 mark. There is also a chance that the market will just go sideways for some time, and that would be positive for bulls in the long run (some kind of an extended flat correction):

Daily S&P 500 index chart - SPX, Large Cap Index

Short-Term Uncertainty – Just Profit-Taking?

The index futures are trading 0.2% higher vs. their Friday’s closing prices right now, so expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are slightly positive. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.2-0.3% so far. There will be no new important economic data announcements today. The broad stock market will likely fluctuate today after its last week’s advance. Is this a short-term topping pattern before downward reversal? Probably not. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation following overnight move up. The market bounced off resistance level at around 2,740. Potential resistance level is also at around 2,745-2,765, marked by previous consolidation. On the other hand, support level is at 2,730-2,735, marked by recent local high. Support level is also at 2,700-2,720, marked by previous level of resistance. The futures contract continues to trade along its short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

S&P 500 futures contract - S&P 500 index chart

Nasdaq Bounces Off 7,000 Mark

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday consolidation. The market got closer to 7,000 mark, but it failed to break above that resistance level. It continued its uptrend recently after bouncing off 6,500 mark more than a week ago. On the other hand, support level is at 6,930-6,950, marked by recent local lows. The Nasdaq futures contract remains slightly below the level of 7,000, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Nasdaq 100 futures contract - Nasdaq 100 index chart

Apple at Record High, Amazon Going Sideways

Let’s take a look at Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of It reached new record high on Friday, as it slightly extended its short-term uptrend. The price got closer to potential resistance level of around $190-200. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. But will it continue even higher? There are some short-term technical overbought conditions:

Daily Apple, Inc. chart - AAPL

Now let’s take a look at, Inc. stock (AMZN) daily chart. The price reached new record high in the late April, as investors reacted to better-than-expected quarterly earnings release. Then, on the same trading day it sold off below $1,600. Was this a downward reversal or just correction following breakout higher? The recent price action looks pretty bullish, as price gets back to the all-time high level. But will it continue higher? There seems to be some short-term uncertainty:

Daily, Inc. chart - AMZN

Dow Jones Closer to 25,000 Mark

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above its medium-term downward trend line recently. Then it continued higher above a few-week-long downward trend line. On Thursday we wrote that “It seems that the blue-chip index will test the resistance level of 25,000 again”. It is currently at the resistance area of 24,800-25,000. On the other hand, support level remains at around 24,000:

Daily DJIA index chart - DJIA, Blue-Chip Index

The broad stock market is the highest since March 21, following the S&P 500 index breakout above 2,700 mark. It is still just medium-term consolidation following the early February sell-off, but bulls are much happier than a week ago. Just like we wrote in our several Stocks Trading Alerts, the early February sell-off set the negative tone for weeks or months to come. Stocks rallied on better-than-expected big cap tech companies’ earnings releases recently, but they came back lower after the May 2 FOMC Statement release. They resumed their uptrend a week ago on Friday, following monthly jobs data release, Apple’s stock price rally. The market continued higher last week, as it got closer to relatively important mid-March local highs (2,801.90 in case of S&P 500 index).

Concluding, the S&P 500 index will probably fluctuate today, as investors may take some short-term profits off the table following last week’s rally. There are some technical overbought conditions. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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