Yesterday, the market averages moved above my January 3, “Rally Ends Today ?” post (DJIA: 13,412).
When you do what I do, you must frequently as the question, “Am I wrong,” even though the answer may not be what you like to acknowledge.
I expected the emotional rally that followed the U.S. House vote to postpone sequestration and continue most of the Bush-era tax cuts and other financial incentives to be followed by sell off, since an even uglier fight in Washington is coming in February and March over raising the debt ceiling and who gets hurt by massive spending cuts.
Brrzzzzziiiiittttttttttt ! (WRONG !)
Undoubtedly, news headlines will be upsetting in coming months with a threat of a government shutdown, default on certain government obligations, etc raising their ugly heads. While the Street is well aware of all of this, it has to put money to work in the new year in hopes stock prices can hold up in face of what is happening in D.C. Besides, where else can they invest ?
Then too, looking ahead, China’s economy may be rebounding, with other economies not far behind, adding oomph to a gradually growing U.S. economy.
Yes, the market is rising further than I expected. I know my reasoning was sound, nevertheless wrong. I may be jumping on that admission too soon, but realistically, I could have squeezed more out of the early January surge.
There will be new leaders in 2013, and they will do well, but post-election years have a history of being downers, since politicians seek to address unpopular issues to clear the way for the mid-term elections.
There are no shortage of painful, major league issues to deal with in coming months.
The market averages hit my two-day projection all in one day, but can edge higher into late afternoon.
Near-term support is DJIA: 13,426 (S&P 500 1,466). Upside looks like DJIA: 13,531 (S&P 500: 1,478).
This is a very dangerous market.
S&P 500: 1,472.12
Nasdaq Comp.: 3,121.75
Russell 2000: 881.24
Friday, January 11, 2013 (9:10 a.m.)
DOW 30 ANALYSIS:
I did a technical analysis of each of the 30 Dow Jones industrial stocks and converted my assessment into the DJIA and concluded near-term risk is 13,260, but the potential near-term upside is 13, 595.
Obviously, I can’t analyze 500 S&P stocks, but near-term risk there is 1,445 and near-term upside 1,481.
The nation has a need for an increase in the nation’s debt ceiling in order to pay bills already approved and contracted for. Until the summer of 2011, it was a ho-hummer, with 8 approved raises over the last 10 years, 85 over the last 100 years.
However, hostilities in Congress got so ugly in 2011, the DJIA tumbled 12% in7 days following a decision to raise the debt limit. S&P lowered its credit rating for the U.S. government.
I see no reason why we won’t get round two in February/March. We reached the debt limit on January 2, but the Treasury has enough wiggle room to buy a couple month’s time.
A POSITIVE NOTE:
While I am bearish about the early months of 2013, the year can produce a lot of attractive opportunities, just at lower prices.
The U.S. economy has recovered from the worst recession/bear market since the 1930s. We survived, and that is huge.
Housing is in recovery mode, increasing homeowners’ “wealth effect,” corporations are flush with cash and hopefully the 113th Congress can resolve key spending issues, setting the stage for a sustainable recovery beyond the current one.
Signs of an economic recovery are surfacing in China with some forecasters becoming more optimistic about Europe’s stabilization and return to growth.
I see an interruption to the bull market in coming months that started in March 2009, but which has not fully run its course. Individual investors are largely absent, but they will return to buy near the end of the bull market when speculation ramps up. That can be a year or two out.
I was premature in my earlier forecast that the long-term bond bubble would burst, but now feel it has already begun with a top traced out between July and December. U.S. Governments were in demand as a refuge from international chaos. As the tensions from European sovereign debt woes abate, money will flow out of safe havens and into stocks where a better return is hoped for. The short-term bonds are obviously not the problem, but long-term bonds are vulnerable.
JANUARY BAROMETER (JB)
(I will repeat this piece about the JB throughout January for new readers, and since it will get a lot of press as the month passes).
There is a seasonal indicator with a good record. It’s the January Barometer (JB), developed 40 years ago by Yale Hirsch, Stock Trader’s Almanac.
This is an annual reference every serious investor should have.
In short, as January goes, so goes the market for the year, generally speaking.
Essentially, the logic behind the JB is that institutions tip their hand as the new year unfolds with the execution of a decidedly bullish or bearish strategy which is reflected in stock prices in January.
A word of caution, all indicators should be viewed with an open mind. While the Almanac boasts an 88.7% accuracy rate for the JB over 62 years, any number of things can happen to change the market’s direction to challenge the JB’s forecast.
Since the big jump in stock prices on January 2nd’ was largely the result of the decision by Congress avoid a plunge over the fiscal cliff, the JB’ forecast may be distorted this year. Congress could have made a decision in 2012, depriving January of its jump-start.
Why wait for the results of the full month when the first five days of January can give an advance for the market’s direction in January. This “early warning” indicator sports an 84.6% accuracy rate,
Here again, the risk of distortion comes in to play.
You will read and hear about the JB in coming weeks, respect its time-tested accuracy, but keep an open mind.
APPLE (AAPL: $523.51) At a Tipping Point ?
One day hopeful, the next gloom. AAPL is hanging tough in face of persistent selling. It is closing in on a moment of truth – big up or big down. Any day now, we will get an answer. AAPL is down 25% from its September high. That’s a big discount. If the Street’s forecasts are reasonably optimistic, AAPL should be attracting enough buyers to barrel through the persistent selling that the stock seems to encounter every time it attempts to get up a full head of steam. I think we are at the tipping point where it either rebounds sharply across $555, or breaks below $500. Rarely does a big name stock present a buying opportunity for this length of time.
Near-term, a move across $530 improves the pattern as well as the odds it won’t break $500.
I do not own, nor am I short Apple’s stock.
FACEBOOK (FB - $31.30): Classic break out and run situation. Support now $29.50
I don’t own, nor have I ever owned FB. Generally, I don’t recommend or comment on individual stocks. I started covering FB technically after its IPO because on May 21. I felt at $34 it was very vulnerable in face of all the misunderstanding and hype. I warned of a drop to $24-26, which it did shortly thereafter. Following a rally back into the 30s, FB dropped into the low 20s where on August 2, I forecast a low of $16.88. On September 4, it hit $17.55, its low since its IPO at $38. I’ll continue technical coverage for a while to accommodate readers.
As for Apple, well it is a big-name stock that got shellacked in a short period of time, I wanted to help out targeting a bottom as with FB. I don’t have a position in the stock, long or short.
Note: I am going to list the economic reports will not include the numbers from the last report, since those numbers are often revised significantly and therefore potentially misleading.
I suggest you access the website: www.mam.econoday for details reports on this week’s calendar and an excellent recap (plus graphs) of last week’s reports.
International Trade (8:30)
Import/Export Prices (8:30)
Treasury Budget (2:00 p.m.)
Phila. Fed Bank President Charles Plosser speaks 9:30 p.m.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac: The new one is out – get it !
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