As a market analyst, the problem I am always facing is one of incomplete information. Moreover, I am constantly plagued by a set of indicators and cyclical relationships that don’t always sing in unison. Some of my indicators will point to bullish, some will point to bearish. Divergences abound. It’s never easy, but I believe the best analysts recognize these problematic challenges for what they are and arrive at a decision based on the “weight of the evidence.”
In recent months my efforts have been primarily focused on calculating when the next major top is likely to occur. That still is my major focus, but in recent days I’ve come to the revisionist theory that this market has perhaps one more leg up before the bull market rocket fuel has been completely exhausted. In my monthly letter published on on equities.com this past Monday, I depicted my cyclical work highlighting a cycle averaging 318.4 months, which has denoted every high since the 1929 top. That cycle can vary, of course, but this cycle would suggest this market may continue higher into mid-March 2015.
Bullish Outlook Issued
On the S&P chart to the left I have depicted a high-to-high rhythm in play since the 11-Oct-2007 high averaging 64.4 months – roughly 315.2 trading days. Should the pattern continue, this cycle points to the March 18, 2015 time period for the next high. Although very late in the bull market, the pattern would suggest we have about 2½ months of additional rally. As such, I am advising a Bullish outlook for the broad market effective with today’s close. I’ll have a more expansive discussion on the cycles and risk I have under study in this weekend’s report.
Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the latest update to the Harley Market Letter for December. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter.
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