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October – Risk or Opportunity?

Wednesday, October  1, 2014     9:19 a.m.  BEFORE the

Wednesday, October  1, 2014     9:19 a.m.  BEFORE the OPEN


Daily: Boiling down fundamental, technical, economic, monetary, fiscal, psychological, and seasonal data into a quick read.


     One day, the stock market is hinting of a big surge, the next day, a big drop.

    Uncertainty would normally be reflected by a sideways trading range in stock prices instead of this coiling spring that can unravel with prices falling, or uncoil with prices rising sharply.

    The market has not yet found a comfort level that discounts known negatives (Russia/Ukraine, ISIS, Fed policy, weakness abroad), but also takes into account the potential for the economy to accelerate, paving the way for higher corporate earnings and higher stock prices.


    Yesterday was a rally failure day that will carry into the open today, at which time we will get a read on how anxious the Bulls are to step in on this first day of Q4 when institutions will place buy/sell orders they want to show in Q4 reports, but not Q3 reports.

    Support today is DJIA 16,934; S&P 500: 1,964; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,464.

    Resistance today is DJIA: 17,145; S&P 500: 1,985; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,522.

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,042

S&P 500: 1,972                                

Nasdaq  Comp.:4,493  

Russell 2000: 1,101



By technically analyzing each of the 30 Dow industrials then using the Dow “divisor” to convert the data back into the DJIA, I can get a better read on what is primary support and a secondary support.

   As of the 9/25 close:  Resistance 17,141; Primary Support: 16,746; and Secondary Support: 16,454.

   The resistance and support levels listed daily may differ, since they are shorter term.



   Ukraine/Russia – Quiet for now, but has the potential to get uglier.

   ISIS/Iraq/Syria – A Euro/Mid-East coalition has formed to counter ISIL. A full-blown bombing mission has been undertaken, which stands to be ongoing. Psychologically, that stands to play well in America, which has been warned of future terrorist activity. The possibility of a major war resulting must be considered.



    Big week for economic reports. For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go to Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


Personal Income/Outlays (8:30): Personal income rose 0.3 pct. in Aug. after a 0.2 pct rise in July.

Pending Home Sales  Ix. (10:00): Down 1.0 pct in Aug. vs 3.3 Pct. in July.

Dallas Fed Mfg. Ix. (10:30): Rose to 17.6 pct. in Sept. from 6.8 pct in Aug.


ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45): Sales dropped 0.2 pct. in Sept. 27 week vs. 4.1 pct. rise in the prior week.  Year/year up 3.6 pct.

S&P Case Shiller Home Prices (9:00): Down 0.5 pct. July vs. decline of 0.3 pct June.  Year/year is +6.7 pct.

Chicago PMI (9:45): September was 60.5 vs. 64.3 in August

Consumer Confidence (10:00): Index down to 86.0 in September from 93.4  (revised) in August.

State Street Global Investor Confidence Ix. (10:00): Index rose in Sept. to 123.9 from 120.1 in Aug..


MBA Purchase/Refi Apps (7:00): Unchanged in 9/26 week; Refi’s down 0.3 pct.

ADP Employment Rpt (8:15)  September increased 213,000 vs. 202,000 August

PMI Mfg. (9:45):

ISM Mfg. Ix. (10:00)

Construction Spend (10:00):


Jobless Claims (8:30):

Factory Orders (10:00):


Employment Situation (8:30):

Int’l Trade (8:30):

PMI services (9:45):

ISM Non- Mfg Ix. (10:00)




Sept. 18  DJIA  17,156  Will BIG Money Sell Into Strength ?

Sept. 19  DJIA  17,265  Alibaba Frenzy – a Sell Signal ?

Sept. 22  DJIA  17,279  Another Test for the Bulls

Sept. 23  DJIA  17,172  Rally Now Would Be Risky

Sept, 24  DJIA  17,055  Critical Crossroads for Money Managers

Sept. 25  DJIA  17,210  Back to Tug of War  – Bulls vs. Bears

Sept  26  DJIA  16,945  Big Move in Market  for Winner of Tug of War

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

A Game-On Analysis,  LLC publication

George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”

[email protected]

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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