Actionable insights straight to your inbox

Number of Yield Curve Inversion Points Rises as the Long-Bond Yield Dives

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

1 min Read
12.20.2018

By Mish Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit Sitka Pacific's Investment Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. I am also a contributing "professor" on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit Sitka Pacific's Investment Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. I am also a contributing "professor" on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

The yield curve flattened across the board following the December 19 FOMC rate hike decision.

Chart Notes

The December 18 level is from Fred, the St. Lois Fed repository.
The “Level Today” column is a spot reading at the moment, approximately 1:00 AM central, December 20, 2018.
The 30-year long bond yield is 2.97% after an extended fake-out trip above 3.0%.

Inversions

The 5-year is inverted with the 3-, 2-, and 1-year yield.
The 3-year is inverted with the 2- and 1-year yield.
The 2-year is inverted with the 1-year yield.

Don’t kid yourself.

Recession is coming. This may be all the signal you get.

I don’t care what the Fed does or says at this point: It’s Too Late to Matter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

This article was originally published on Mish Talk.

Economy

Big Idea | How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love a 600-Year-Old Megatrend

Will The Boomer Generation Take One for The Team?

Today’s Elites Should Be Thinking Harder About The Kind of Future They Want

China’s ’Syndrome’ May Be More Acute Than You Think

About that Near-Term Crisis … Wealth Pumps, Behavioral Economics, Cliodynamics, More

A Pivotal Moment in Stocks vs. Bonds? Simplifying the ’Fed Model’

The Fed model compares the return profile of stocks and US government bonds.

Energy Crack Spreads as Real-Time Indicators of Refinery Performance

Why distillate crack spreads will likely experience more volatility.

Remember Robinhood? Maybe It’s Time for Second Look

The saying that there is no such thing as a free lunch is very much true for Robinhood.

The Black Swan Event about to Spike Uranium —Again

Another Black Swan event is taking place right now. And it’s likely to have a similar effect on uranium prices.

Goldman Grouses, Chicago Taxes, Debtors Delay (Future of Finance | Week in Review)

A weekly five-point roundup of critical events in fintech, the future of finance and the next wave of banking industry transformation.

Flashback: A 5-Year-Old Buy Recommendation and An Important Lesson Learned

Of course, I couldn’t envision the extent to which AI would take off when I initially urged you to buy Nvidia.

A Pivotal Moment in Stocks vs. Bonds? Simplifying the ’Fed Model’

Thompson Clark

4 min Read
09.26.2023

Thompson Clark
4 min Read
09.26.2023