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Number of Yield Curve Inversion Points Rises as the Long-Bond Yield Dives

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

1 min Read
12.20.2018

By Mish Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit Sitka Pacific's Investment Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. I am also a contributing "professor" on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit Sitka Pacific's Investment Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. I am also a contributing "professor" on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.

The US Treasury 5-year yield is now inverted with 3, 2, and even the 1-year treasury yield.

The yield curve flattened across the board following the December 19 FOMC rate hike decision.

Chart Notes

The December 18 level is from Fred, the St. Lois Fed repository.
The “Level Today” column is a spot reading at the moment, approximately 1:00 AM central, December 20, 2018.
The 30-year long bond yield is 2.97% after an extended fake-out trip above 3.0%.

Inversions

The 5-year is inverted with the 3-, 2-, and 1-year yield.
The 3-year is inverted with the 2- and 1-year yield.
The 2-year is inverted with the 1-year yield.

Don’t kid yourself.

Recession is coming. This may be all the signal you get.

I don’t care what the Fed does or says at this point: It’s Too Late to Matter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

This article was originally published on Mish Talk.

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