No April Fool’s Joke: ​NIRP Crash Indicator Elevated to Pre-Crash Warning

Michael Markowski  |

After the NIRP Crash Indicator spent the entire month of March on a yellow caution signal, it went to an orange pre-crash indication on April 1, 2016. This is NO April Fool’s Day joke!

That the NIRP Crash Indicator went from a reading of yellow to orange on a day in which the major indices including the Dow and S&P 500 closed at 2016 highs is irrelevant. The performance of any of the major indices of the world’s developed countries, including the U.S., are NOT included in the metrics which power the orange, yellow and green signals for the NIRP indicator.

The NIRP crash signals are published and freely available each day at

  • Red — full crash
  • Orange — pre-crash
  • Yellow — caution
  • Green — clear

The videos and articles below explain how negative interest rates, if not eliminated, will eventually cause the world’s banking system to become dysfunctional, and cause a crash of the world’s stock markets. Should negative interest rates continue, the S&P 500 could potentially decline by 50% to 925 by the end of 2017 or early 2018.

Below are links to all five of my March 2016 articles about negative interest rates:

The March 16, 2016 article entitled, "Ridding World of Negative Rates May Require Meltdown of Income-Producing Assets”, is about what might happen to the valuations of income-producing assets, including dividend stocks and commercial real estate. The article and the chart and video “Why Negative Rates Could Send the S&P 500 to 925” below explain the mathematics and rational supporting the S&P 500 declining to 925.

The March 16, 2016 article entitled, “Negative Rates Pose Grave Risks to Banks”, explains why negative interest rates — if they are not eliminated — will eventually break the world’s banking system and bank business model that has been in place for 1,000 years. The two videos below explain why all of the world’s banks are at risk because of negative rates. This includes U.S. banks, regardless of whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank institutes a NIRP (negative interest rate policy).

The March 9, 2016 article entitled, “Cash Hoarding has Thrust Negative Rates into Lead Role for Next Crash”, is about cash hoarding and the potential actions that governments are considering to prevent hoarding. This includes removing larger denominations of currency from circulation, including the U.S. $100 bill.

The March 7, 2016 article entitled, “New Indicator to Predict Future Market Crashes”, about my “NIRP Crash Indicator” was developed from the research that I conducted on the Crash of 2008. The metrics that now power the indicator could have been used to predict the crash of 2008 and the V-shaped reversal. Included in this article is my recommended Black Swan investment strategy, which is the only plausible strategy that an investor can utilize to fully protect their liquid assets from a crash.

The March 4, 2016 article entitled, “Here's How Japan's NIRP Increases the Probability of Global Market Crash”, was the first foundational article that I produced to initiate my ongoing coverage of extremely controversial negative interest rates. In my video interview with SCN’s Jane King, I share my concerns about the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the country’s central bank, instituting a NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).

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Additional videos are available explaining digital disruptor and first mover companies, whereby selectively investing in these market niches enables an investor to create dynasty wealth relatively quickly. (Please see In-depth information regarding my past and current predictions is available at

My predictions are frequently ahead of the curve. The September 2007 predictions that appeared in my column stated that share-price collapses of the five major brokers, including Lehman and Bear Stearns, were imminent. While accurate, they proved to be premature. For this reason I had to advise readers to get out a second time in my January 2008 column entitled “Brokerages and the Sub-Prime Crash”. My third and final warning to get out, and stay out, occurred in October of 2008 after Lehman had filed for bankruptcy. For my article “The Carnage for Financials Isn’t Over” I reiterated that share prices for the two remaining public companies continued to be too high. By the end of November 2008 share prices of both Goldman and Morgan Stanley had fallen by an additional 60% and 70%, respectively — new all-time lows.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to:


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