New Era for Stocks?

George Brooks |

Monday, November  3, 2014     9:12 a.m.  DAILY BEFORE the OPEN


Daily:Boiling down fundamental, technical, economic,

monetary, fiscal, psychological, and seasonal data into a quick read.


    Right now – today – the market is in no-man’s land, defying time-tested technical and fundamental yardsticks for valuation

   Guns on the street are cocked ready to fire on the buy-side or sell side, depending on who knows what at this point.

    Issues that rocked the market  two weeks ago (ISIS, Ebola, Russia/Ukraine, soft economies abroad) are still with us, just not front page news.

    A 9.8%, September/October plunge in the S&P 500 has been reversed with the DJIA and Nasdaq Comp. hitting new highs, the S&P 500 to follow suit today.


    A move in the stock market as sharp as that which occurred since mid-October is sure to prompt some profit taking, yet with foreign economies struggling, and long-term bonds getting pricey,  the U.S. stock  market appears to be the only place an investor can get a return on their investment.

    That can be a good reason to BUY with blinders, but does that make sense with a bull market that is hitting new highs after a 200% up-move ?    Gutsy investors will roll the dice. Cautious investors will have a cash reserve and sit close to the exit. 


Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,390

S&P 500:  2,018                               

Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,630

Russell 2000:1173


    BEST SIX MONTHS for OWNING STOCKS (Nov. 1 to May 1)*

   This six months period has consistently outperformed the six months between May 1 and November 1, though both have been interrupted by counter moves.

    It is important to consider the possibility that the six month period starting Monday will be an exception.  This would not only go counter to the Best Six Months pattern, it would contradict the market’s bullish record for rising  in pre-presidential  election years.

    If the Washington scene has been ugly and dysfunctional over the last four years, it stands to get even more so regardless of who comes out ahead next Tuesday.   Just keep an open mind.  None of these seasonal tendencies is infallible.  These seasonal patterns, and others are presented in great detail in the Stock Trader’s Almanac – “must” reading.



By technically analyzing each of the 30 Dow industrials then using the Dow “divisor” to convert the data back into the DJIA, I can get a better read on what is primary support and a secondary support.

  As of the 10/8 close:  Resistance 17,532; Primary Support: 17,052; and Secondary Support: 16,930.

   NOTE: These calculations generally hold for longer periods of time, but need to be changed when the market is hit with excessive volatility.

   The resistance and support levels listed daily may differ, since they are shorter term.



     For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”


PMI Mfg Ix. (9:45):

Fed’ Evans speaks (9:30)

ISM Mfg. Ix (10:00):

Construction Spend (10:00):

Global Mfg. Ix. (11:00):


ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45:)

Factory Orders (10:00):


MBA Purchase Apps, Refi’s (7:00):

ADP Employment 8:15):

Fed’s Kockerlakota speaks (9:15):

Fed’s Lacker speaks (9:30):

PMI Services Ix.(9:45):

ISM Non-Mfg Ix (10:00):

Fed’s Rosengran speaks (10:00)


Jobless Claims (8:30):

Productiviy/Costs (8:30):


Employment Situation (8:30):

Consumer Credit (3:00):



Oct. 16   DJIA  16,141  Rally Today Off Wednesday Lows Risky

Oct. 17   DJIA  16,117  What If the Fed Doesn’t Delay Taper ?

Oct. 20   DJIA  16,380   Critical Week for Bulls

Oct. 21   DJIA  16,399   Market Attacking Key Resistance

Oct. 22   DJIA   16,614  Just a Rally of End of the  Correction ?

Oct. 23   DJIA   16,461  BIG Day for Economic Reports

Oct. 24   DJIA   16,677  DJIA – a Portfolio of Small Cap Stocks ?

Oct. 27  DJIA    16,805  Wednesday: Wall Street: Pass, or Fail

Oct. 28   DJIA   16,817  Bullard Bull !!

Oct. 29   DJIA   17,005  Fed Decision – Major Market Reaction ?

Oct. 30   DJIA   16,974  Interest Rate Angst Next

Oct. 31   DJIA   17,195  Raise Some Cash

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George  Brooks

A Game-On Analysis,  LL

“Investor’s first read – a daily edge before the open”

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to:


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