McKinsey: Automation May Wipe Out 1/3 Of America’s Workforce By 2030

John Mauldin  |

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McKinsey & Co. has come out with a comprehensive report on the predicted near-future effects of automation on employment.

Entitled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” the report takes us a big step closer to understanding the massive impacts of the transformation we are now embarked upon.

Since the report itself is 160 pages long (but very readable), today I’ll share a helpful review of the report written by Steve LeVine.

So without further ado, I’ll turn you over to Steve.

By Steve LeVine
November 29, 2017
Originally published here

In a new study that is optimistic about automation yet stark in its appraisal of the challenge ahead, McKinsey says massive government intervention will be required to hold societies together against the ravages of labor disruption over the next 13 years. Up to 800 million people—including a third of the workforce in the US and Germany—will be made jobless by 2030, the study says.

The bottom line: The economy of most countries will eventually replace the lost jobs, the study says, but many of the unemployed will need considerable help to shift to new work, and salaries could continue to flatline. "It's a Marshall Plan size of task," Michael Chui, lead author of the McKinsey report, tells Axios.



In the eight-month study, the McKinsey Global Institute, the firm's think tank, found that almost half of those thrown out of work—375 million people, comprising 14% of the global workforce—will have to find entirely new occupations since their old one will either no longer exist or need far fewer workers. Chinese will have the highest such absolute numbers—100 million people changing occupations, or 12% of the country's 2030 workforce.

I asked Chui what surprised him the most about the findings. "The degree of transition that needs to happen over time is a real eye opener," he said.

The details:

Do not attempt to slow the rollout of AI and robotization, the report urged, but instead accelerate it, because a slowdown "would curtail the contributions that these technologies make to business dynamism and economic growth."

Every week, celebrated economic commentator John Mauldin highlights a well-researched, controversial essay from a fellow economic expert. Whether you find them inspiring, upsetting, or outrageous… they’ll all make you think Outside the Box. Get the newsletter free in your inbox every Wednesday.

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