Decline Underway into April 6th
Since stock prices posted their most recent high on March 23rd, the trend for the overall market has turned south – actually more-consolidative in structure thus far – with another five trading days by my estimate before the trend turns back northbound and further new highs on the roadmap for April.
My analysis of the daily chart zeroes-in on the April 6th time period for the next 39.8 trading day cycle low. April 6th will be 117 trading days from the Oct. 15, 2014 low (39.8 X 3 = 119.4). It will also mark 27 trading days from the Feb 25, 2015 high. Markets tend to incur high-low and low-high moves that span Fibonacci numbers or their one half counts. One half of Fib 55 = 27.5. And a plethora of 0.382 / 0.618 ratios on the daily chart – and hourly chart – all point to late in the session of trading on April 6th – the day after the three day Easter break.
My hourly work is shown on the next page. The hourly counts, the Fibonacci ratios all point to a high near the close of trading on Monday, March 30th. Following that high, I then look for a pretty steep slide into April 6th. From that “April 6th low,” I expect one final ramp-up into about May 13th to seal-the-deal on this bull market. But remain flexible.
Treasury Bonds / Yield
Since marking the latest 84.3 trading day cycle high, the TYX (yield on the 30 year bond) has undergone a back-and-fill evolution about mid-range of its most-recent low-high swing. I look for modest downside in TYX from here over the course of the coming week before turning back upward. With TYX poised to turn higher, the intermediate trend for bonds remains southbound.
I remain a long-term bear on the metals complex but temporarily holding a NEUTRAL advisory. The five month move higher off the early November lows is a counter-trend move upward in a long-term bear market. Gold prices have bounced back above the 20 day moving average. In the near-term, I look for continued sideways chop with modest upside bias. If we can see Comex Gold tag the 1,250 level one more time – which I think quite likely – I will then most likely re-issue my BEARISH advisory on the precious metals.
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