Are Market Highs Behind Us?
Admittedly guilty of heralding a number of prior false positives, I nevertheless contend that we are on the cusp of a significant stock market high. Indeed, I believe there is a very good chance we may be looking at a completed top in the rear view mirror. As I have repeatedly voiced, the May/June 2015 time period contains a panoply of cycles – long-term, intermediate, and short-term – all suggestive of the potential for an important stock market high in the making. Whether this pending high I am calling for turns out to be the pinnacle high in this mother-of-all bull markets remains to be seen, but I’m inclined to believe it has. Stock market highs tend to be rounded affairs. That is, all of the major benchmark averages do not – as a rule – top-out in unison. What we tend to see is a broadening affair with a number of the components among the Big FIVE (as I like to call them) peaking out across a broad swath of time. Thus far, we have seen new highs in the Dow Transports on November 28; DJIA on May 19; S&P 500 on May 20; NYA on May 21, and NASDAQ on April 27 (intraday*), May 27 (close).
I put an asterisk beside the NASDAQ because the all time high in the NAZ occurred on March 10, 2000. We did not breach that intraday in this run – at least thus far. In summary, this market would appear quite vulnerable to the cold winds from the north. Indeed, I would absolutely not be long here. Lace-up your ski boots. We’re heading downhill.
Bond prices are rebounding off their lows of a week ago. But despite the near-term buoyancy, I don’t look for much strength near-term. The intermediate trend for the interest rate market would appear to be southbound for the next several months. TLT is hovering just under its 200-day moving average. If this fails to contain the rebound, I would look for the 50-day moving – clearly in southbound mode – to serve as the next resistance barrier.
Gold prices are languishing just under their 50-day moving average. It’s possible the upward bounce may continue back to the 200-day but I would not look for any more than that. The next support level below present price is at the 1,125 price octave – a break-to that level is not a question of if, but when. Hold bearish.
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