My last post before going on vacation was on the 12th when I headlined, “June 4 Rebound Must Hold or Else.”
That hasn’t changed.
I wrote that key support at DJIA 12,450 (S&P 500: 1310) must hold to avert a greater decline, possibly to DJIA 11,500 &S&P 500: 1230). The June 4 intraday low was DJIA 12,035 (S&P 500: 1266). Breaking the “support” levels noted above would be a warning that an attack on the June 4 lows was at risk, so far my support levels have held.
But, odds favor another attack and odds favor the June 4 lows will be broken. In my opinion, there are simply too many balls up in the air right now to enable a sustained recovery. I still see a choppy slide into a fall buying opportunity.
Granted, some Q2 earnings will make good reading and the U.S. economy is in better shape than those in Europe and Asia. I just think the fog is too thick for the BIG money to be aggressive here.
CONCLUSION: I see a spike to DJIA 12,740 (S&P 500: 1350) as the market responds to better New Home Sales at 10 a.m., or expectations of a better Jobless Claims report tomorrow than last week, or just bounces technically, but the upside is limited for now.
The writer of Investor’s first read, George Brooks, is not registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.