Chinese small-cap solar panel manufacturer JA Solar Holdings (JASO) traded sharply up on news that Northland Capital had initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a price target of $19 a share, nearly double its current share price.
Shares opened up 4 percent at $10.58 and climbed to a high of $11 a share (an 8.2 percent gain) just before noon before pulling back to around $10.75 by early afternoon.
Northland Capital analyst Colin Rusch sparked the gains with his bullish analysis, citing growth opportunities in Japan and China and lower production costs.
"With JASO increasing its module capacity in 2014, we expect the company will be able to see manufacturing increasing margin as some peers see margins begin to flat line,” said Rusch. “We also believe the company has among the best non-silicon costs in the industry, exiting 2013 at $0.43/W and targeting <$0.40/W...We believe JASO should see all in manufacturing cost of <$0.50W by the end of the year...We believe the company should be able to reach near 20% GM by the end of 2014 for its manufacturing business."
Solar stocks tend to move in unison and Tuesday was no exception, with the primary ETF tracking the industry, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) , gaining over 1.25 percent on the day. Big gainers included Trina Solar Limited (TSL) , up over 4.5 percent; Yingli Green Energy (YGE) , up over 2.75 percent, and Hanwha Solarone (HSOL) , up about 3.5 percent. So far, 2014 has proven a solid year for solar companies, with TAN among the top-performing ETFs in the first quarter.
JA Solar Holdings’ stock chart currently shows some interesting patterns and technical factors that could mean the stock is due for a bigger move in the relatively near future. The stock recently began gaining again after hitting a rising support level that been running parallel to the stock’s 200-day SMA. It also came as the stock 14-day stochastic RSI dipped all the way to 0.00, giving traders two clear buy signals and sparking a mini-run over the last few days.
The support line appear solid, bouncing prices back upward five times since July of last year. However, this most recent downturn that pushed the stock into oversold territory and tested support came as a result of a double-top that resulted from the stock hitting resistance at $12.50 a share after a positive earnings report prompted a positive run.
With the convergence of these two strong trend lines, it appears as though prices are consolidating. As such, it’s possible that a major move up or down could be coming in the next few months based on these technical factors. However, there remain plenty of fundamental factors that could ultimately supersede these, most notably the company’s Q1 2014 earnings report.
Still, with price consolidation like this, it seems entirely possible that any news or fundamentals could ultimately act as the necessary catalyst to spark a big buying run or sell off.
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