On Monday, George Friedman, global-intelligence expert and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, dropped a bombshell: “I’m usually the guy to tell you about the next decade, but today I’m going to tell you about the next week. It has become apparent that the US is preparing to attack North Korea.”
In his keynote speech at the annual Strategic Investment Conference hosted by investment research firm Mauldin Economics, Friedman—who in his long career has advised the US government and military as well as Fortune 500 companies—claimed that we’re very close to launching a strike.
Why does he think war is imminent? Jonathan Roth of Mauldin Economics interviewed Friedman after his speech (full video interview below).
“A second carrier battle group has joined the Vinson off Korea,” said Friedman, ticking off the indicators. “There’s an indication a third is moving to join it. F-35s, our most advanced fighters, have deployed to North Korea. You have an exercise going on with over 100 F-16s in the skies over South Korea. And most ominous, civil defense briefings are taking place in Guam.”
Guam is an unincorporated and organized territory of the United States, located in the western Pacific Ocean. The US military’s B-52, B-2, and B-1 bombers are based there, Friedman stated, and “that would be the main axis of attack.”
The reason for the civil defense briefings: “Guam is part of the United States, and they have to be protected. […] And when you start getting the civilian population ready, you’ve sort of made a decision, because that is going to panic a lot of people.”
Friedman doesn’t think that North Korea has offensive capabilities against the US mainland. “But remember, South Korea is an ally. We have large numbers of troops stationed there, and Seoul is a metropolitan area of 25 million people.”
North Korea could do massive damage there, Friedman said, “so a great part of this war is not going to have to do with taking out the nuclear facilities—it’s going to have to do with silencing the guns.”
Where is China in all of this? The Chinese have been using North Korea as a means of extortion, Friedman said. Whenever the US has been pressuring the Chinese on a certain issue, suddenly North Korea has acted up. However, he doesn’t believe that the Chinese will intervene in this case.
“Now the Russians and the Chinese are saying, let’s follow the diplomatic course,” Friedman said, “but I think the American view is, what diplomatic course? You have to have somebody to negotiate with. They’re not ready to negotiate.”
Trump opponents might suspect that the president is leading the country into war to cover up the recent political scandals, but Friedman doesn’t believe it: “Trump is following US policy as it’s been laid down since the Bush administration, all through the Obama administration. There’s a red line where [the North Koreans] may very well have nuclear capabilities to attack their neighbors or the United States. At that point, we intervene.”
The timeline to military action, he suggests, could be very short. “I would normally say let’s look for the third carrier to show up, but I’m not sure that that plays a major role. Certainly, I would think that Trump should be back in the country—he’s in Israel right now—before anything happens.”
Watch the full interview below.
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