Wednesday, February 8, 2012 9:25 a.m. ET
DJIA: 12,878.43 S&P 500: 1347.05
Stocks are advancing from one end to the globe to the other, as news media blare progress on Greek debt talks progress.
Is contagion now off the table ? Safe to come out and play ?
If we aren’t going to get pulverized by a global meltdown, maybe it isn’t necessary to be invested in various safe securities/instruments that really aren’t returning enough to offset inflation. So far today, the U.S. stock futures are not as quick to jump on the bandwagon.
Many negatives remain , but the rhino in the room is European financial meltdown, and put that one in a cage and the other “walls of worries” can be absorbed.
Corrections will occur, but offer opportunities, not a road to ruin.
In spite a share gains in corporate earnings last year the S&P 500 was flat.
Without the risk of a global meltdown, why hide out is instruments yielding less than one-half of one percent ?
Volatility has taken a back seat, and steady accumulation is driving stock prices.
Time to go “all-in” ?
Of course not, but it is time to think longer term, to think out 9 to 18 months to economies , that are shifting into second gear. At that time many stocks will have had a nifty run, rewarding investors for their prescience. New investing will be done in stocks sporting higher multiples, like it or not.
CONCLUSION: I have been expounding that the BIG story of 2012 will be a stampede out of safe haven securities and into the stock market. Many things still stand in the way, (Europe, Mid-East, politics, etc), but “they” will ALWAYS be there. I thing it has begun to happen, reluctantly.
TODAY: Slow start, possible drop to DJIA 12,818 (S&P: 1340). News has been good, so the market is a wee bit vulnerable to bad news, but nothing that justifies ignoring stocks.
- ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45 a.m.) by major retailers which account for 10% of total store sales.
- Consumer Credit (3:00 p.m.) –Consumer credit jumped $20.4 billion November.
- MBA Purchase Applications (7: 00 a.m.)as a measure of applications at mortgage bankers, this index provides leading indicator of single family home sales and housing construction.
- Jobless Claims (8:30 a,m.) Initial claims dropped 12,000 for the week ending Jan. 28 to 367,000. Obviously “down: is good.
- Wholesale Trade (10:00a.m.) – slowed to 1 0.1 percent gain, Inventory/sales ratio holding at 1.15.
- International Trade (8:30 a.m.) Trade gap widened in Nov. due to jump in oil imports and dip in exports. The index is comprised of merchandise and services
- Consumer Sentiment (9:55 a.m.) Rose in the final week of January, Sentiments have been soaring since July.
Jan 23 DJIA: 12,720 "Europeans Seeking Long-Term Economic Cure"
Jan 25 DJIA: 12,675 "Consolidation, Correction Likely though US Stocks Hold Strong Against EU Turmoil"
Jan. 26 DJIA: 12,756 "Fed Would Raise Interest Rates If Inflation Picks Up"
Jan. 27 DJIA: 12,734 "Warning! Tradable Market Action Lies in Waiting"
Jan. 30 DJIA: 12,660 "“HUGE” Week for Economic Indicators"
Jan. 31 DJIA: 12,653 "All That Is Needed Is a Spark"
Feb. 1 DJIA: 12,632 "Week’s Economic Reports Could Be The Springboard"
Feb. 3 DJIA: 12,862 "Investors Beating the Bullish Tune"
Feb. 6 DJIA: 12,845 "Follow the Money as It Exits Safe Havens"
Feb. 7 DJIA: 12,878 "Market Held Up By Sneaky Buying"
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