Investor’s first read–Brooksie’s edge before the open
Friday, Feb, 3, 2012, 9:24 a.m.
DJIA: 12,705,41 S&P 500: 1325,54
I started off this week with an alert to a positive impact from 16 economic indicators that were to be reported, but warned that a drop of 100 Dow points would have to happen first. We didn’t have to wait for the 100-point decline, it came in early trading. We didn’t have to wait long for a rally, either.
Without a major jolt from abroad, I see 13,000 written all over the DJIA by Tuesday. I don’t like annual forecasts, I don’t think anyone is prescient enough to call shots over a period when any number of global crises can change the game.
We have the potential here for a real hummer, as sideline sitters come in to play and all that money parked in safe places comes out of hiding. (Check headlines below)
- Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 a.m.): Grew at a slower rate in Nov. vs. Sept.
- ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:46 a.m): Accounts for 10% total retail sales.
- Employment Cost Index (8:30 a.m.): Broadest measure of labor costs.
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (9 a.m.): Tracks monthly changes in 20 met districts. May provide small clue to housing recovery.
- Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.): Regional business conditions (mfg and non-mfg) Slight firming from October to November.
- Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.): Survey of consumer attitudes go big bump in December.
- Motor Vehicle Sales (early): Big ticket items in industry with widespread impact.
- MBA Purchase Applications (7 a.m.): Measures actions and confidence to take those actions.
- ADP Employment (8:15 a.m.): Includes private hires, not government. Has been upbeat.
- ISM Manufacturing Index (10 a.m.): Broadly based survey of 300 manufacturers
- Construction Spending (10 a.m.): Jumped 1.2% in Nov. after a 0.2% drop in October includes both single family houses and multi-family, the latter may be slowing.
- Chain Store Sales (early): Monthly volumes of a big cross section.
- Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.): Overall trend down with drop of 21,000 for week ending Jan.21.
- Productivity and Costs (8:30 a.m.): Stabilizing after early surge in 2011.
- Employment Situation (8:30 a.m.): A jump of 200,000 in December came on top of a jump of 100,000 in November.
- Factory Orders (10 a.m.): Basically flat over the past six months. Though October, the indicator was down 0.4%.
- ISM Non–Mfg Index (10 a.m.): Survey of 375 n
Recent blog headlines:
Jan. 17 DJIA: 12,422 “Market Defying S&P Downgrade – But Rally Must Hold”
Jan. 18 DJIA: 12,482 “World Bank Forecast to Test Bull’s Resolve“
Jan 19 DJIA: 12,578 “What Happens If All That Money Parked in a “Safe” Haven Pours Into Stocks?“
Jan 20 DJIA: 12,623 “Two European Meetings Next Week to Set Tone of the Market“
Jan 23 DJIA: 12,720 “Europeans Seeking Long-Term Economic Cure“
Jan 25 DJIA: 12,675 “Consolidation, Correction Likely though US Stocks Hold Strong Against EU Turmoil“
Jan. 26 DJIA: 12,756 “Fed Would Raise Interest Rates If Inflation Picks Up“
Jan. 27 DJIA: 12,734 “Warning! Tradable Market Action Lies in Waiting“
Jan. 30 DJIA: 12,660 ““HUGE” Week for Economic Indicators“
Jan. 31 DJIA: 12,653 “All That Is Needed Is a Spark“
Feb. 1 DJIA: 12,632 “Week’s Economic Reports Could Be The Springboard“
The writer of Investor’s first read, George Brooks, is not registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.