Hunting Season - Be Armed and Ready

George Brooks |

How does a company grow the top line, other than take business away from a competitor ?.

   I want to do more work on this, but felt the urge to plant a seed.

   Yes, companies have been able to grow the bottom line through economies, longer hours and additional responsibilities for the same pay, and the deferral of capital expenditures.

   But at some time all those measures are exhausted, and the top line MUST grow.

  It’s common knowledge that two thirds of the consumers are living paycheck-to-paycheck. These consumers demonstrated this past weekend, they will buy but the discount better be fat, and the store better have exactly what they want or it’s no deal.

   Presently, the economy and stock market  will hum without this issue being addressed, - It’s one of those big picture issues that require a person to step way back to see.

   Some 70% of our economy is consumer spending.  It cannot be ignored for long.

TODAY:

 As I have been saying, this is December, a month when stocks that should go up, go down, and those with little reason to go up, rise

   Definitely, this is the time to screen out stocks you want to own and pick a price you are willing to pay and be patient. Many will dawdle until late in the month when they will lift effortlessly leaving many prospective investors on the sidelines.

Investor’s first reada daily edge before the open

DJIA: 16,008

S&P 500:  1,800

Nasdaq  Comp.4,045

Russell 2000:  1,129

Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2013

TIMING – OPPORTUNITY STOCKS 

   The following are based on technical analysis only and  are not to be taken as buy or sell recommendations, but as one of many factors that must be considered in the decision process. Comments do not take into consideration earnings reports, or changes in institutional ratings, company guidance. Technical analysis is based on one’s interpretation of  the impact buying and selling have on the price of a stock and is therefore not an exact science. News and events can change an interpretation instantly. 

Apple (AAPL: $551.23) Positive.

Classic breakout and run.  Support $550 was hit yesterday as the overall market weakened, resulting in a one-day reversal. Breaking $550, AAPL can be expected to slip to the  $543 area.  This is a candidate for profit-taking, having  had a big run from a double bottom in te $390 area in April and July.

Facebook (FB:47.06)  Positive

My suspicions of a phony H&S top were confirmed last week with FB’s rebound. Nevertheless, FB must cross $49 to ice the deal. But that may be difficult in coming weeks as year-end adjustments to portfolios are made. Stock has some support at $46.60.  Resistance is $49.

IBM (IBM: $177.48)  Neutral

No change: IBM is still struggling with an irregular base. Stock needs to hold above $177, or pattern worsens. There was a volume spike at 177.12late in the day that looked like buying.  Resistance is now $178 –$179.

Pulte Homes (PHM: $18.50)  Positive

While PHM got a big boost from  Fed Vice-Chair Janet Yetten’s assurance the Fed will continue to accommodate the economic recovery and especially housing, the industry must now demonstrate it can gain traction.  PHM blew out last Tuesday, but its follow through Wednesday ran out of steam. Friday was a loser, as well, all this  probably due to taper talk. Looks like a  steady, but patient  seller there. Breaking $18.40. PHM will need to find buyers at $17.95. The irrational behavior of stocks in December clouds the picture.

First Solar (FSLR:59.81)  Positive

Tried to run at the open Friday, but a seller stopped it in its tracks.  Pattern is still positive.  Support is $59.60, Resistance $61.40

Nike (NKE:$79.09) “the inchworm”  Positive 

Some profit-taking showed up  Friday and again yesterday to interrupt NKE’s steady inch-by-inch  rise.  Support is $79.10, but in a weak market may yield to $78.50..  Resistance is now $79.60.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: $27.35)  Positive

Wednesday breakout is  now followed by consolidation. Stock acts like it wants to attack $28.

Polaris Inds. (PII:132.99)  Positive

No Change: Positive consolidation pattern . Acts like it wants to break out above $135 and run.  But a seller came in to block a breakout and PII has been struggling to move higher. A bounce is likely, but resistance is now $134.

Amazon (AMZN: $392.30) Positive

Ran into some selling yesterday, probably reflecting  mixed reviews on retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday. Support is $390.  Resistance $393.

Pandora Media (P:28.25) Positive.

This stock has lovers and haters and its volatility reflects it. Reversed its slide before it got to my target.    Break above $29 opens the door for $30 + but first it may drift to $27.30.

But it could not break above $29, but Friday’s trading was light due to shortened trading. Should hold at $28.

THE ECONOMY:  HUGE !

Prior to Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing  last week, there was a concern for an early taper.  Her testimony seemed to assure the Street  that the Fed will continue to accommodate the economic recovery if she becomes chairman. 

  But the Street is once again worried about an early Fed taper, and this week’s economic reports may just raise its concerns to a higher level.

For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go towww.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.” HOWEVER: this site will not post data and charts for the Thanksgiving Day week electing to take a week off. The calendar below is current.

MONDAY:

PMI Mfg. Ix. (8:58) November index rose to 54.7 from 51.4 October

ISM Mfg. Ix. (10:00) Index rose to 57.3 from 56.4

Construction Spend (10:00) Overall spending in October was up 0.8 pct vs. gain of 0.3% September. Data may be affected by the shutdown

TUESDAY:

ICSC Goldman Store Sales ((7:45)

WEDNESDAY:

ADP Employment (8:15)

International Trade (8:30)

New Home Sales (10:00)

ISM Non- Mfg. Ix. (10:00)

Fed Beige Book  (2:00)

THURSDAY:

GDP (8:30)

Jobless Claims (8:30)

Factory Orders (10:00)

FRIDAY:

Employment Situation (8:30)

Personal Income/Outlays(8:30)

Consumer Sentiment (9:55)

RECENT POSTS - 2013

Nov 6  DJIA   15,618   “Bulls Hold the Edge, But What About Interest Rates ?

Nov 7   DJIA   15,747  “Early Profit Taking or Warning of a Correction ?”

Nov 8   DJIA   15,593  “Time for the Street to Get Off the Fed Teat”

Nov 12 DJIA   15, 761 “The Economy, Interest Rates, The Fed, Stock Market”

Nov 12 DJIA  15,783   “Get Ready for Year-End Cross Currents”

Nov 13 DJIA  15,750   “Money Manager Dilemma – Your Problem, as Well

Nov 14 DJIA  15,821   “Feeding Frenzy in 2014’s Winners ? Big Day for “TECH  

                                       WATCH” Stocks”

Nov 15 DJIA 15,876   “Yellen – No Taper – Surprise January Correction ?

Nov 18 DJIA  15,961  “Green Light to Load Up on Stocks ?

Hospital

Nov 25 DJIA  16,064  Fetch the Blinders – Here come the forecasts

Nov 26 DJIA  16,072   Time to Shop for New Winners and Old Winners Getting  

                                     Whacked by  Profit-Taking”

Nov 27 DJIA16,072   “December Head-Fakes Galore – Raises Risks”

Nov 29 DJIA 16,097  “Stock Market Bubbles Don’t Pop to a Full House”

Dec 2   DJIA 16.086  “Serious Stuff Coming This Week and Next”

  George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”

sensiblesleuth@gmail.com

*STOCK TRADERS ALMANAC: The new annual Stock Trader’s Almanac  is off the press.  This is a “must,” always has been, if you are a serious  investor, or intend to be a serious investor. Visit stocktradersalmanac.com for details

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The writer of  Investor’s first read, George Brooks,  is not registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk. Brooks may buy or sell stocks referred to herein.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer

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Symbol Name Price Change % Volume
MENXF Magnum Energy Inc 0.21 -0.01 -5.80 93,400

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