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Holidays or Not, Do Not Take Your Eyes Off This Market

Investor’s first read– a daily edge before the open DJIA: 15,914 S&P 500:  1,795 Nasdaq  Comp.4,037 Russell 2000:  1,125 Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2013    This

Investor’s first reada daily edge before the open

DJIA: 15,914

S&P 500:  1,795

Nasdaq  Comp.4,037

Russell 2000:  1,125

Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2013   

This morning’s ADP Employment report showing 215,000 jobs added in November was significantly greater than Reuters forecast for an increase of 173,000. The Employment Situation report comes at 8:30 Friday. The 10-year Treasury note continues to edge up and was 2.83% this morning.

   Surprisingly, futures trading did not react to the downside in pre-market trading, since good employment numbers only increases fears of an early taper.

   This is DECEMBER market activity, a tough read since year-end  portfolio adjustments by institutions and individuals tend to distort normal trends in stock prices, i.e., stock you think should be going up, go down, and stocks you don’t think should go up, rise.

    Many of the latter were underperformers during the year, dumped beyond reason at year-end and simply rebound in December when the “dumping” abates.

   The Stock Trader’s Almanac has pioneered research on this phenom for decades.

I can’t condense its studies here with limited time and space.  It keeps readers current on seasonalities at  I suggest you own this publication.


   Now that we have dismissed the round numbers (DJIA 16,000 and S&P 500:1,800) as a lot of crap, the market can  adjust to  year-end crosscurrents, taper talk and New Year Forecasts, and find a comfort level in coming weeks. Volatility will rule, but I see a risk of DJIA 15,730 (S&P 500: 1,780) this week.


   The following are based on technical analysis only and  are not to be taken as buy or sell recommendations, but as one of many factors that must be considered in the decision process. Comments do not take into consideration earnings reports, or changes in institutional ratings, company guidance. Technical analysis is based on one’s interpretation of  the impact buying and selling have on the price of a stock and is therefore not an exact science. News and events can change an interpretation instantly. 

Apple (AAPL: $566.32) Positive.

If there is  profit-taking, it was all consumed yesterday as buyers reversed Monday’s sell off.  Support $560.

Facebook (FB:46.73)  Positive

Needs a move across $48 to validate  recent bottom and set the stage for a renewed up move.

IBM (IBM: $176.08)  Neutral

No change: IBM is still struggling with an irregular base. While it briefly broke support at $177, it looks like a buyer showed up late yesterday to hold the line and possibly stabilize the stock.

 Pulte Homes (PHM: $18.43)  Positive

While PHM got a big boost from  Fed Vice-Chair Janet Yetten’s assurance the Fed will continue to accommodate the economic recovery and especially housing, the industry must now demonstrate it can gain traction. Should hold above $18. Actually acts well considering the uncertainty plaguing the housing industry.

First Solar (FSLR:59.62)  Positive

No change:  Tried to run at the open Friday, but a seller stopped it in its tracks.  Pattern is still positive.  Support is $59.60, Resistance $61.40

Nike (NKE:$79.13) “the inchworm”  Positive 

Some profit-taking showed up  Friday and again Monday to interrupt NKE’s steady inch-by-inch  rise. But in spite of a weak market yesterday, NKE firmed up. Should inch ahead today.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: $27.50)  Positive

Another breakout. Can cross $28 with just a little help from the overall market.

Polaris Inds. (PII:133.26)  Positive

No Change: Positive consolidation pattern . Acts like it wants to break out above $135 and run.  But a seller came in to block a breakout and PII has been struggling to move higher. A bounce is likely, but resistance is now $134.

Amazon (AMZN: $384.66) Positive

Ran into some selling yesterday, probably reflecting  mixed reviews on retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday and profit-taking. New support is $383. Breaking that  takes it to $379.

Pandora Media (P:28.27) Positive.

This stock has lovers and haters and its volatility reflects it. Break above $29 opens the door for $30 + but first it may drift to $27.30.


Prior to Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing  last week, there was a concern for an early taper.  Her testimony seemed to assure the Street  that the Fed will continue to accommodate the economic recovery if she becomes chairman. 

  But the Street is once again worried about an early Fed taper, and this week’s economic reports may just raise its concerns to a higher level.

For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.” HOWEVER: this site will not post data and charts for the Thanksgiving Day week electing to take a week off. The calendar below is current.


PMI Mfg. Ix. (8:58) November index rose to 54.7 from 51.4 October

ISM Mfg. Ix. (10:00) Index rose to 57.3 from 56.4

Construction Spend (10:00) Overall spending in October was up 0.8 pct vs. gain of 0.3% September. Data may be affected by the shutdown


ICSC Goldman Store Sales ((7:45) Down 2.8 pct. for week 11/30


ADP Employment (8:15) 215,000 private sector jobs were added in November, well above forecasts for 170,000.

International Trade (8:30)

New Home Sales (10:00)

ISM Non- Mfg. Ix. (10:00)

Fed Beige Book  (2:00)


GDP (8:30)

Jobless Claims (8:30)

Factory Orders (10:00)


Employment Situation (8:30)

Personal Income/Outlays(8:30)

Consumer Sentiment (9:55)


Nov 6  DJIA   15,618   “Bulls Hold the Edge, But What About Interest Rates ?

Nov 7   DJIA   15,747  “Early Profit Taking or Warning of a Correction ?”

Nov 8   DJIA   15,593  “Time for the Street to Get Off the Fed Teat”

Nov 12 DJIA   15, 761 “The Economy, Interest Rates, The Fed, Stock Market”

Nov 12 DJIA  15,783   “Get Ready for Year-End Cross Currents”

Nov 13 DJIA  15,750   “Money Manager Dilemma – Your Problem, as Well

Nov 14 DJIA  15,821   “Feeding Frenzy in 2014’s Winners ? Big Day for “TECH  

                                       WATCH” Stocks”

Nov 15 DJIA 15,876   “Yellen – No Taper – Surprise January Correction ?

Nov 18 DJIA  15,961  “Green Light to Load Up on Stocks ?


Nov 25 DJIA  16,064  Fetch the Blinders – Here come the forecasts

Nov 26 DJIA  16,072   Time to Shop for New Winners and Old Winners Getting  

                                     Whacked by  Profit-Taking”

Nov 27 DJIA16,072   “December Head-Fakes Galore – Raises Risks”

Nov 29 DJIA 16,097  “Stock Market Bubbles Don’t Pop to a Full House”

Dec 2   DJIA 16.086  “Serious Stuff Coming This Week and Next”

  George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”

[email protected]

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The writer of  Investor’s first read, George Brooks,  is not registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk. Brooks may buy or sell stocks referred to herein.