Futures Outlook: Time to Revisit T-Notes

Lindsay Hall  |

Futures Outlook for the Week of 05/13/13

I have been asking people to pay attention and be ready for the shift when it comes to T-Notes since Fall of last year. I ask you now, to once more place your attention here.

As the Fed has been accused of failure and yields have been pushed to unheard of lows, everyone needs to be aware of the potential for next steps to either harm your portfolio inherently due to exposure you already have or allow you to be in driver’s seat for what’s coming. If you have any inclination that interest rates will be raised over the next number of years you should be paying attention to these charts and opportunities.

I am looking for a failure long term in the T-Notes market and options can be a great way to take advantage of this type of move should it develop well for us.

Per the Daily chart you can see that we had a failure in March and then April into May brought us a bit higher. We are now seeing the failures that have broken the ascending trendline on the daily chart. There is momentum here to the downside. If this momentum continues then you will build a further breakdown on the Weekly chart.

Per our Weekly chart, The 131 territory is a level that I would like to see broken down cleanly. Keep in mind that the play that I am talking about here is not for a day to day scenario, but rather a longer term play. If you decide to play these short term, you will want to pay attention to the Weekly chart and the Monthly chart, but your Daily chart would become paramount.

Finally, in the Monthly chart, I have crudely highlighted the ascent in prices on the 10 Year T-Note. I want you to look at the type of appreciation that existed, the steepness of the trendline and just how long this has been going upwards.

It has been in a virtual climb for the last 6-7 years. In this type of overbought condition corrections may very well be on their way. It is one of those moments in history where you will look back and smile if you recognize and employ strategies to take advantage of the next moves or kick yourself if you watch the opportunity go by you.

Our strategy for T-Notes is one that is fixed risk and starts off slowly as we don’t have that crystal ball to tell us exactly when things will happen. What we do know is that we want to be involved when they do.

If you would like to join me next week, I will be hosting two webinars on T-Notes and our long term campaign. Simply sign up to attend:

Click Here to reserve your space in the evening session, Monday, May 20, 7 pm EST.

Click Here to reserve your space in the day session, Wednesday, May 22, 3 pm EST.

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