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Four Days Out from a Market Peak?

Marking Time… I remain resolute in my view that a market top is imminent – although pinning it down to the day has certainly been a challenging endeavor. It’s an iterative
Studying the chart history of any stock, index, or commodity will reveal that each market has a series of cyclical profiles that affect price movement. Cycles are the essential factor in forecasting how long a trend should run and when to expect reversals. Their understanding and exploitation provides an overwhelming edge to the successful trader. Stan Harley’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles – their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking, and exploitation for investment and trading. He will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. Stan will provide attendees with the mathematical tools he uses to calculate – and forecast – cyclical highs and lows and be prepared to buy or sell. Throughout our discussions, Stan will present a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond, precious metals, and housing markets. Stan Harley’s career has spanned investment advisory services, defense/aerospace, and military service. A California registered investment adviser since 1991, Stan publishes The Harley Market Letter, which employs advanced technical analysis of the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and other sectors of interest. The Harley Market Letter has been ranked by Timer Digest as Stock Market Timer of the Year and Bond Market Timer of the Year in 1998, 2001, and 2010. Mr. Harley’s work has been featured in Barron's, Investors' Business Daily, The Los Angeles Times, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other national media publications. Stan is also a frequent guest market analyst on radio, television, and streaming internet audio/video web sites. He can be reached at (805)-484-4258 or e-mail [email protected]. Information can also be found at: http://www.harleymarketletter.com/.
Studying the chart history of any stock, index, or commodity will reveal that each market has a series of cyclical profiles that affect price movement. Cycles are the essential factor in forecasting how long a trend should run and when to expect reversals. Their understanding and exploitation provides an overwhelming edge to the successful trader. Stan Harley’s technical expertise encompasses market cycles – their mathematical derivation, real-time tracking, and exploitation for investment and trading. He will demonstrate that cycles have their root derivation grounded in Fibonacci numerology. Stan will provide attendees with the mathematical tools he uses to calculate – and forecast – cyclical highs and lows and be prepared to buy or sell. Throughout our discussions, Stan will present a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the key cycles in the stock, bond, precious metals, and housing markets. Stan Harley’s career has spanned investment advisory services, defense/aerospace, and military service. A California registered investment adviser since 1991, Stan publishes The Harley Market Letter, which employs advanced technical analysis of the stock market, bonds, precious metals, and other sectors of interest. The Harley Market Letter has been ranked by Timer Digest as Stock Market Timer of the Year and Bond Market Timer of the Year in 1998, 2001, and 2010. Mr. Harley’s work has been featured in Barron's, Investors' Business Daily, The Los Angeles Times, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, and other national media publications. Stan is also a frequent guest market analyst on radio, television, and streaming internet audio/video web sites. He can be reached at (805)-484-4258 or e-mail [email protected]. Information can also be found at: http://www.harleymarketletter.com/.

Marking Time…

I remain resolute in my view that a market top is imminent – although pinning it down to the day has certainly been a challenging endeavor. It’s an iterative process…

There is the possibility we might have as much as another four trading days of modest buoyancy for a number of reasons: First, the 79.6 trading day duplex function I have written about so much can, at times, expand by a factor of 1.236  –  to 98.4 trading days. If that were to happen, that would carry this push higher into about December 11th – Thursday of next week. I could easily see that happening. And there’s more…

On the left you'll see my chart of the S&P 500 surrounding the October 11, 2007 time period – the last major market peak (also associated with the prior crest in the 79.6 month cycle series). I note some interesting – and perhaps similar – developments. The time period between the 19-Jul-07H and the 11-Oct-07H spanned a period of 59 trading days. A similar 59 TD time count from the 19-Sep-14H would carry into 11-Dec-14. A 39 TD low-high count from the 16-Aug-07L into the 11-Oct-07H when added to the 15-Oct-14L would equate to 10-Dec-2014. If history were to repeat…that would suggest we could expect a high in the 10-12 Dec 2014 time period – which lines up nicely with the 98.4 TD count described above.

 

 

 

 

 

 

DJIA / GE Indicator

A fellow newsletter writer, friend, and colleague, Larry Katz (now deceased), brought to my attention some 20 years ago an interesting phenomenon. He and I headed up a couple of market analysis groups in the Los Angeles area and often we shared a few adult beverages – and market views. One of his precepts involved comparing the market action in the DJIA with that of the stock of General Electric Co. (GE) – a major DJIA component. As a market rally matures with the DJIA pushing to new highs, he noted, GE very frequently diverges by making a lower high. It is usually the chart of GE that proves right – leading to a subsequent market decline. Note the present pattern. My colleague, Tom McClellan has studied this pattern as well and he, too, has written extensively about it.

Treasury Bonds

Languishing here without much fanfare. Longer term I remain a bond bull – but in the intermediate term the pattern would suggest further weakness into the late first quarter of next year.

 

 

 

 

 

Precious Metals

Continued sloppy price action underway in the metals complex. Price is jockeying back-and-forth across the 50 day moving average. Although I have a near-term bias to the upside, putting on any longs here could be excessively high risk in my judgment – however, the 1,250 price octave and change is still possible in the weeks ahead.

 

 

 

 

Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the latest update to the Harley Market Letter for December. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of www.equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.