Feeding Frenzy for 2014's Winners? Big Day for "TECH WATCH"

George Brooks |

The market  must be prescient, it rallied yesterday ahead  of comments about QE after the close by Fed Vice Chair, Janet Yellen, candidate for Benjamin Bernanke’s chairmanship.

   Yellen said she would plan to continue monetary stimulus, that the economy and labor markets must improve before taper can begin.

   Yellen goes before  the Senate Banking Committee at 10 o’clock today for her  nomination hearing. 

   Does this mean, no taper until the  March 18 - 19, FOMC meeting as forecast by a great majority of economists ?

   Yes, unless the economy gains significant traction in the interim.


   What will the stock and bond markets do when the economy does gain significant traction ?  If  these markets are going up in a slow economy, goosed by Fed stimulus, will they go down  when the Fed begins to taper out of QE ?

    As I see it now, the markets will take a nasty hit.  The hit would be greater if the stock market has had a huge run right before the announcement of taper.  Otherwise the hit would likely be scary, but short-lived.


   Deduct 20 points from the DJIA from Cisco’s (CSCO) 3-point drop at the open. Otherwise, the markets should be positive with the potential for an up move by the DJIA to 15,895 (S&P 500: 1,795). Support is DJIA 15,768 (S&P 500: 1,775).

Investor’s first reada daily edge before the open

DJIA: 15,821

S&P 500: 1,782

Nasdaq  Comp. 3,965

Russell 2000: 1,112

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013     (9:01 a.m.)



FB +4.5%, PHM +1.6%, FSLR + 2.5%, NKE +1.3%, HPQ + 1.0%, PII + 4.7%, AMZN + 1.9%, P +3.6%

   The following are based on technical analysis only and  are not to be taken as buy or sell recommendations, but as one of many factors that must be considered in the decision process. Comments do not take into consideration earnings reports, or changes in institutional ratings, company guidance. Technical analysis is based on one’s interpretation of  the impact buying and selling have on the price of a stock and is therefore not an exact science. News and events can change an interpretation instantly. 

Apple (AAPL: $520.63) Positive.

Remains in consolidation, with trading range narrowing ( $521.60 to $518.35). Break above  522.50  raises odds of move across $530.  Looks like AAPL has an early year-end profit-taker in which case a brief slip below $510 is remotely  possible to flush out the selling.

Facebook (FB: $48.71) Positive

Got just what I was looking for – a one-day reversal off support at $46. Support now rises to $47.85. Move into low 50s likely. Move also reduces risk of head & shoulders top, which I thought was a crock anyhow.  Often an aborted  head & shoulders  precedes a sharp move. I wouldn’t put the vacation stash on that one, since this  usually happens in the earlier stages of  an extended rise in a stock or the market.

IBM (IBM: $183.55)  Now positive

Firmed up after a brief pause with a rise to $185.65 a good shot. Support is $182.60.

Pulte Homes (PHM: $17.03)  Positive

After three attempts to drop below $16.50 support, PHM moved across $17 and looks ready to take on some ugly resistance starting at $17.50. Stock is dancing to the taper drumbeat, as are  all housing-related stocks.  This industry is critical to the whole economic recovery and the Fed knows that !

First Solar (FSLR:$64.20)  Positive

Strong fundamentals and shorts sellers who are getting crushed spell one breakout after another.  Support rises to $63 - $64.

Nike (NKE:$77.85) Positive

 Late day spike in volume Tuesday was the tip off to Wednesday’s jump in price. Stage is set for a move into the low 80s.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: $26.49)  Positive

Firmed up yesterday. Break above $26.70 raises odds of  higher prices, but stock needs a pick up in volume  for that to be meaningful. Recent strength due to its $3.5 billion U.S. Navy order.

Polaris Inds. (PII:)  Positive

PII’s ability to plow through formidable resistance  yesterday between $130 - $132 was very impressive.  May pause here to consolidate  its six-pointer. Support is $135.35.

Amazon (AMZN: $) Positive

The big hurdle will be $360.  Raymond James’ Aaron Kessler  raised his rating to Strong Buy from Market Perform.  There could be some year-end selling here. Support is $344 - $346.  Yesterday’s firming may well set the stage for a run at  low $360s.

Pandora Media (P:$29.25) Positive.

Wednesday, I reasoned that it is characteristic for P to have a lot of false starts. But yesterday was a breakout  with chances  good for a move into the low 30s. Support is $29.15.



While the economic reports released this week are few in number, they are significant.   Though the accuracy of these reports may still be suspect due to the shutdown, the Street will be watching for clues about the economy’s strength, since it will influence  the timing of Fed taper.   With renewed concern about an early Fed taper, Fed. Chief Bernanke’s speech Wednesday, 7:00p.m. will be parsed for clues. For a detailed account of past and current economic reports, including charts go to: mam.econoday.com - www.mam.econoday.com


NFIB Small Business Optimism report (7:30) Down sharply in Oct. to (1.6 from 93.9

Fed’s Fisher speaks (3:00a.m.) ?

Fed’s Narayana speaks 1:00p.m.

Fed’s Lockhart speaks (1:50a.m.)


Fed. chiefBernanke speaks (7:00p.m.)


Jobless Claims (8:30) Proj.  330,000 for week ended 11/9

Productivity/Costs (8:30)  Proj.: Q3 +2.3pct.

Fed’s Plosser speaks(9:a.m.)


Empire State Mfg. Svy (8:30) Proj.: Index Nov. 5.5 vs. 1.52 Oct.

Import/Export Prices(8:30) Proj. Oct. -0.5 pct.

Industrial Production (9:15) Proj. Oct. +0.1pct.  vs. +0.6 Sept.

Wholesale Trade (10:00) Proj.  Sept. +0.4pct.


Oct 25 DJIA   15,509   “Best Six Months for Owning Stocks”

Oct 28 DJIA   15,570   “Do I Detect Speculative “Fever “ ? If So, What Can  


Oct 29 DJIA   15,568  “ When Will the Small Investor Plunge ?”

Oct 30 DJIA   15,680  “Don’t Rule Out Fed Taper by Year-End”

Oct 31 DJIA   15,618  “Easy Does It ! Market Nervous, Needs Breather”

Nov 1  DJIA   15,545  “Rally Failure, Correction to Continue ?

Nov 4  DJIA   15,615  “Room to Run – Just Ditch the Blinders”

Nov 5  DJIA   15,639  “Market Crossroads – Which Way ?

Nov 6  DJIA   15,618   “Bulls Hold the Edge, But What About Interest Rates ?

Nov 7   DJIA   15,747  “Early Profit Taking or Warning of a Correction ?”

Nov 8   DJIA   15,593  “Time for the Street to Get Off the Fed Teat”

Nov 12 DJIA   15, 761 “The Economy, Interest Rates, The Fed, Stock Market”

Nov 12 DJIA  15,783   “Get Ready for Year-End Cross Currents”

  George  Brooks

“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”


*STOCK TRADERS ALMANAC: The new annual Stock Trader’s Almanac  is off the press.  This is a “must,” always has been, if you are a serious  investor, or intend to be a serious investor. Visit stocktradersalmanac.com for details


The writer of  Investor’s first read, George Brooks,  is not registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk. Brooks may buy or sell stocks referred to herein.








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