Expect this Sloppy Market to Continue

Stan Harley |

Targeting April 23th for Next Tradable Low

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The high I was anticipating near the end of trading on Thursday this week occurred right to the hour of my projection. And although I was prepared for some kind of pullback on Friday, the magnitude of the drop was a bit more than I had envisioned. Nevertheless, my bullish expectation for the next month remains undeterred. For the first three trading sessions of next week, I look for continued sloppiness with a modest downside-sideways bias towards Thursday, April 23rd. Actually, I’d be surprised if the market were to trade much lower; I rather suspect more sideways action than downward price movement for the balance of next week. 

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My hourly work points to mid-session this Thursday for my target low-point reversal. I have a plethora of cyclical and Fibonacci relationships clustering in-and-around Thursday, April 23rd at approximately 09:00 AM Pacific time for my expected low. I’d give that a few hours left or right but you get the point. I would use the first three or four days of next week to add to existing longs. But beyond next Thursday, I would absolutely put a halt to any further long purchases. My work still zeroes-in on May 13, 2015 for what I think could be a major market high.

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Treasury Bonds / Yield

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The price action for the TYX (yield on the 30 year bond) chart reflects a continued slide down the 20 day moving average. I look for stabilization here very shortly, followed by a renewed push higher. A push higher in TYX equates to a commensurate decline for the bond market.  

Precious Metals

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Comex gold prices are straddling their 20-day moving average as well except the bias for this commodity is higher. The pattern of highs on the daily chart would suggest we are likely to see a reflex rally high in about two weeks at most. Ideally, I’d like to see Gold tag the 1,250 level one more time – which I think quite likely. Assuming I get the confirmation in my indicators, I will in all likelihood re-issue my BEARISH advisory on the precious metals at that point. For now, though, I’m content to advise remaining on the sidelines.

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Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the latest update to the Harley Market Letter for April. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter.   

 

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