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Economic Update: Blue Skies Or The Eye Of The Storm?

S&P's Deputy Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino notes that while storms brewed on Capitol hill, skies were mostly sunny for the rest of the U.S. with a few clouds. Recent data continues to
S&P Capital IQ, a business line of the McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE:MHP), is a leading provider of multi-asset class data, research and analytics to institutional investors, investment and commercial banks, investment advisors and wealth managers, corporations and universities around the world. We provide a broad suite of capabilities designed to help track performance, generate alpha, identify new… trading and investment ideas, and perform risk analysis and mitigation strategies. Through leading desktop solutions such as Capital IQ, Global Credit Portal and MarketScope Advisor desktops; enterprise solutions such as S&P Securities Evaluations, Global Data Solutions , and Compustat; and research offerings including Leveraged Commentary & Data, Global Market Intelligence, and company and funds research, S&P Capital IQ sharpens financial intelligence into the wisdom today's investors need.
S&P Capital IQ, a business line of the McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE:MHP), is a leading provider of multi-asset class data, research and analytics to institutional investors, investment and commercial banks, investment advisors and wealth managers, corporations and universities around the world. We provide a broad suite of capabilities designed to help track performance, generate alpha, identify new… trading and investment ideas, and perform risk analysis and mitigation strategies. Through leading desktop solutions such as Capital IQ, Global Credit Portal and MarketScope Advisor desktops; enterprise solutions such as S&P Securities Evaluations, Global Data Solutions , and Compustat; and research offerings including Leveraged Commentary & Data, Global Market Intelligence, and company and funds research, S&P Capital IQ sharpens financial intelligence into the wisdom today's investors need.

S&P's Deputy Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino notes that while storms brewed on Capitol hill, skies were mostly sunny for the rest of the U.S. with a few clouds. Recent data continues to indicate consumer and manufacturer confidence warming up in February, but the U.S. recovery still faces some ugly prospects over the next few months.

The implications of the dollar potentially losing its status as the global reserve are numerous. Obviously, there may be currency risks, and decreased demand for U.S. Treasuries could lead to rising interest rates. I would also expect to see massive commodity price swings.
Many of us economy-watchers have been expecting recession, though with significant differences on odds and timing. Regardless, recent banking developments just made recession more likely and may have accelerated its onset.
Many people think of position size in terms of how many shares they own of a particular stock. But it’s much smarter to think of it in terms of what percentage of your total capital is in a particular stock.