No sooner did the DJIA close above 15,000 for the first time yesterday, and the financial media is touting 16,000.
Are you getting the feeling you are missing something even though you are fully invested ?
Maybe you could be doing better.
Are you writing down everything you hear recommended on CNBC ?
Are you feeling it is finally now safe to load up, even take some chances beyond your tolerance for risk ?
Are some of those companies with far-out technologies looking attractive all of a sudden ?
What if the DJIA is really going to 38,820 by 2025 as Jeffrey Hirsch projects in his book “The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles.” ?*
Weeks ago a correction was sure to happen, now it simply won’t happen ????? Is that what you are beginning to think too ?
Really, the stock market has endured the unthinkable over the last 5 years, what can possibly stop it now ?
I doubt it will be Syria, North Korea, Iran, or some soft economic reports.
A correction will most likely come unannounced, out of nowhere and start inconspicuously as a blip that feeds on itself as the BIG money locks in some fat gains after institutional money managers have put most of their client’s money to word in the market, i.e. they will “pull the plug.”
Sound like a conspiracy theory ?
No, just business as usual.
This is mostly about supply and demand – money in and money out.
At some point the intense buying will pause, if only for several weeks, allowing selling to dominate trading and the market seeks a new level of support where buyers enter to balance the selling.
We haven’t seen anything yet in terms of the wild speculation, a classic bull market phenom before it tops out.
But, along the way, it will correct and whack portfolios of investors who got caught up in all the Dow-16,000 hype and loaded up carelessly.
Oh, about that Dow 38,000 stuff ? I agree with Hirsch and it will be quite a ride.
Investor’s first read – an edge before the open
S&P 500: 1,625.96
Nasdaq Comp.: 3,396.62
Russell 2000: 967.82
Wednesday, May 8, 2013 (9:12 a.m.)
SEQUESTER: Stay tuned, it is starting to hit. Erskin Bowles told CNBC Squawk Box recently sequester is a “stupid” way to handle deficit reduction.
At some point, the question will be raised about the sequester’s impact on the economy, notwithstanding the uncertainty it brings to persons at risk, directly and indirectly.
It is too early to expect anything to show up in the indicators, and it may never be a major issue if our economic recovery gains traction.
It is one of those potential negatives one has to consider along with other ingredients that lead to a decision to buy or sell.
Employers (government or private) may opt to furlough employees without pay, cut back on hours rather than release them to unemployment at the expense of the government. Even so, several weeks without pay has an impact on the economy.
This is one of those uncertainties that, along with a few others, can trigger a consolidation or pullback in the stock market.
Apple (AAPL: $458.65)
Yesterday’s high and low were greater than the prior day’s high/low and the stock closed down for the day , which suggests a correction to $444 - $446.
That does not mean AAPL is no longer under accumulation. It has risen 68 points (17.4%) in 12 days, and some traders will take profits.
Spikes in volume on the upside indicate AAPL is now under systematic accumulation when only 12 days ago, it was under systematic distribution.
I am not long or short AAPL.
FACEBOOK (FB - $27.57)
Thursday and Friday, FB hit resistance at $29, the same level that stopped it twice in February and backed off sharply. It slipped below my support at $27.87 Monday and slightly below an adjusted support at $27.07 yesterday. Three sharp drops in a row is an ugly technical pattern, unless it reverses sharply today from $26.45 and closes up for the day on increased volume.
Shareholders clearly “liked” what they heard from management Wednesday. The stock surged on heavy volume, as detractors obviously beat a retreat.
I am not long or short Facebook.
The reports on the economy are light this week with Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Fed Chief Bernanke’s speech at 9:30 Friday heading up the two key scheduled events for the week.
Jobless Claims 8:30)
Wholesale Trade (10:00)
Fed Chief Bernnke speaks (9:30)
Treasury Budget (2:00 p.m.)
*Jeffrey Hirsch: Chief Market Strategist MagnetAE Fund,, President Hirsch Organization publisher “Stock Trader’s Almanac” and “Commodity Trader’s Almanac.”
“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”
The writer of Investor’s first read, George Brooks, is not registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.
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