Could We See a Pre-Thanksgiving Trading Cycle High?

Stan Harley |

A Few More Inches Perhaps?

This will be an abbreviated weekend report as I am packing up to leave Las Vegas for my return home to the Los Angeles area. The Traders Expo at Caesar’s Palace has been a phenomenal event this year with some extraordinarily talented presentations. 

We are now 45 trading days (TDs) from the crest of the prior 39.8 TD cycle high on September 19th – and 85 trading days from the prior 79.6 TD July 24th duplex high. This morning saw a gap open with the 2,062.50 price octave on the S&P cash index finally getting tagged – this level has been my outstanding target as you know. Time-wise, though, we may have just a few more inches to go. I note that next Wednesday, November 26th, will coincide with 48 TDs from the previous high – the prior low-to-low pattern spanned a similar 48 TDs. 

S_P_11_24.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the chart above I show my regression analysis of the time points encompassing the 07-Aug-14L, the 19-Sep-14H, and the 15-Oct-14L which points to 26-Nov-14 as a potential pivotal turn as well. My measures of price velocity, too, are displaying the type of divergent structure that could well define a high next week. Note how both my 7 and 14 day components have been coming downhill – with the latest uptick in the 7 day. A couple more inches might just do it….

39.8_79.6_Trading_Cycles_11_19.jpgOutlook_11_24.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each month, Stan Harley publishes The Harley Market Letter, a newsletter that provides advanced technical analysis of stocks, bonds, and precious metals. This is the most recent Harley Market Letter update. Want to learn more from acclaimed market analyst Stan Harley? Visit his site and subscribe to the full Harley Market Letter. 

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