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Charting the Global Impact of the Coronavirus

We examine the scale and trajectory of stock market moves, the growing number of cases beyond China, the reaction of the PBOC and the impact on safe haven investments.

LONDON (Reuters) – The following charts aim to capture the scale and trajectory of stock market moves in response to the new coronavirus outbreak, the growing number of cases beyond China, the reaction of China’s central bank and the impact on safe haven investments.

1) GLOBAL STOCKS’ VS. REPORTED CORONAVIRUS CASES

Initial news of the coronavirus hit global stocks, but they stabilized as the total number of reported cases of coronavirus appeared to crest, with investors calling a peak by the end of the first quarter.

But with a sharp rise in new cases reported out of South Korea, Italy and Iran, markets have again slumped as a darkening outlook for world growth saw investors flock to safe haven assets.

2) CASES OUTSIDE CHINA RISE

Outside mainland China, the outbreak has spread to about 29 countries and territories, with a death toll of about two dozen, according to a Reuters tally.

South Korea reported 231 new cases, taking its total to 833. Many are in its fourth-largest city, Daegu, which became more isolated with Asiana Airlines and Korean Air suspending flights there until next month.

Iran, which announced its first two cases last Wednesday, said it now had 61 cases and 12 deaths. Most of the infections were in the Shi’ite Muslim holy city of Qom.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Bahrain and Iraq reported their first cases and Kuwait reported three cases involving people who had been in Iran.

3) STIMULUS TAPS STAY OPEN

China’s central bank has continued to pump liquidity into the country’s financial system via open market operations and lowering a number of key interest rates.

Last week, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the new benchmark lending gauge introduced in August, was lowered by 10 basis points to 4.05% from 4.15%.

China’s central bank reiterated on Monday that it will launch new measures to counter the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in the country. It said it would also reduce interest rates on loans to small and micro companies.

4) SAFE HAVENS BENEFIT

As investors rush to safe haven assets, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell below 1.4% for the first time. The yield on Germany’s 10-year bond fell to -0.5%, its lowest in more than four months. The entire German bond yield curve is now back below zero.

Gold continued to rise and is holding above $1,600 per ounce.

Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; editing by Philippa Fletcher.

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Source: Reuters

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