December 6, 2018: Final day in life of 2009 secular bull?
For the week ended December 7th the Bull & Bear Tracker’s signals produced a return of 20.5%. This compared to the S&P 500’s decline of 4.6% for the trade shortened week due to the market being closed for George Bush’s December 5th funeral. The Bull & Bear Tracker’s year-to-date return increased to 108.5% as compared to 88.0% at November 30, 2018.
Thursday December 6th may have been the final day in the life of the secular bull market. Based on the S&P 500’s price and volume on the December 6th close and the December 7th open as depicted in the chart below it appears that the bull market which began in March 2009 has run out of gas. From its 12/4/18 close of 2700.06, the S&P 500 declined by 2.9% to it low of 2621.53 on 12/6/18. The index then embarked on a steady climb that resulted in its closing at 2695.95, on 12/6/18 which was 4.1 points below its open. The inability for the S&P 500 to go the additional 4.1 points to close up for the day is a good indicator of the bull being exhausted. The second sign was that the bullish volume at the end of the day on December 6th did not follow through after the S&P 500’s weak opening on December 7th. Its clear from the price and volume action in the chart below that the secular bull market is either struggling or has perished.
This week is a critical week for the S&P 500 and all of the indices. If support for the S&P 500 can-not be held at 2633, the next level of support is the closing low of 2581.00 for 2018, which occurred in February. The probability is high that the February low could be tested soon since the intraday low for today Monday December 10th was 2583.91. If the S&P 500 breaks to new 2018 lows it will become official that the new bear market has begun.
To maximize upside in this highly volatile market I recommend a subscription to the Bull & Bear Tracker. Its Green and Red signals are utilized 24/7/365 to trade two triple leveraged S&P 500, ETFs including the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF
The statistics table below depicts that the for the first eleven months the Bull & Bear Tracker’s published and back tested signals generated an average return of approximately 8% per month. For more about how the Bull & Bear Tracker operates and how its Red signal produces profits in a down market and Green signal in an up market read my article entitled “Bull & Bear Tracker Gorging on Market Volatility”.
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