TODAY:
Yesterday was surprisingly quiet. I suspect institutions were agonizing over what to do. Jump in and maybe they get clothes-lined by a nasty gap down. Hesitate and miss a buying opportunity as another institution buys your targeted stock, running it higher.
Obviously, the Russia/Ukraine situation is worth worry, and corporate earnings are always a minefield.
Is it safe to add to holdings with the broad-based S&P 500 near record highs?
Corporate valuations have always been a matter of opinion, ergo wide swings in price/earnings ratios. Currently, the Street has its doubts about a reasonable valuation of Tech stocks. That opinion will change after the current correction has run its course.
At 8:30 this morning, the Employment Situation report hit the Street. April payrolls jumped 288,000, well in excess of a projection for an increase of 218,000.
The stock-index futures barely budged. At first glance, that is a negative. Good news should buoy the market.
This suggests a drop in early trading with a rebound at the end of the day.
Minor support is: DJIA: 16,538; S&P 500: 1,881; Nasdaq: 4,121
Breaking that, the next support is DJIA: 16,498; S&P500:1,873; Nasdaq: 4,098
Minor resistance is: DJIA 16,598; S&P 500: 1,890; Nasdaq: 4,142
Investor’s first read– Daily before the open
DJIA: 16,558
S&P 500: 1,883
Nasdaq Comp.:4,127
Russell 2000: 1,125
Friday, May 2, 2014 9:10 a.m.
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Sell in May and Go Away ?? (Wednesday’s headline)
That’s a cute little jingle and the media/financial writers enjoy these things, but they can be misleading. May has offered a number of timely exits, but I don’t buy the “stay away” part, clearly not until November.
You are already seeing articles about this seasonal phenom in the press and newsletters. Essentially, it is the backend of the “Best Six Months”* to own stocks (November 1 to May 1). Obviously, the message here is of the two six month periods, May to November is the worst for stocks.
This is true, but as I have noted with the Best Six Months, a lot can happen in the interim.
This bromide can’t be taken as a “given.” Of the 26 years I studied a “top” occurred in May on 10 occasions ranging from May 1 to May 22. Two occurred in June and two in July. No meaningful top occurred in 12 of the years studied.
On far too many occasions over the last 26 years a May top was followed by a decline, but within months (well before Nov. 1) the market rallied sharply. I see it more as a trading opportunity – i.e. “Sell in May,” but be ready to buy back after a plunge.
Studies like this have to have a cut-off date but are really intended to be accepted with an open mind, i.e. as May 1 approaches, move closer to the exit mentally and be ready to lock in some profits and raise some cash.
THE TECHS:
It’s obvious there is a shift in market leadership out of tech stocks and into lower valuation issues. However, that shift can produce some outstanding buying opportunities in tech stocks at lower levels. The techs, et al, haven’t had a big run because they didn’t have superior growth potential, or because the Street didn’t like to run them up.
They will find a level where over-valuation crosses over to under-valuation, perhaps a technical selling extreme when their prices hit the “ouch point.”
The BIG money may not let that happen, but it would be a good idea for investors to decide which ones they would be comfortable owning and at what price.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF 30 DOW STOCKS ( as of 4/25)
At key junctures, I technically analyze each of the 30 Dow industrials then convert that data back into a projected DJIA. I seek a reasonable downside and a more severe downside, as well as a projected upside potential. This is a short-term projection, assuming no significant change in news. My reasonable downside was 16,204 and more severe downside: 16,132. The current upside potential is 16,594
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HOUSING:
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Purchase Applications reported for the April 25 week were down 4.0% and refi’s down 7.0%. Year/year refi’s were down 21%. The sharp drop in refis (y/y) is exaggerated by the fact present refis are compared with exceptionally high numbers a year ago which coincided with exceptionally low 30-year fixed mortgage rates. When rates shot up from 3.5% to 4.5% early last year, refi’s plunged. Always look at raw numbers or a chart when given percent changes over a period of time. The comparisons won’t be as dramatic in Q3 and Q4 when the year-ago numbers drop.
If new or existing home buyers think these rates are high, they should look back to 6%, 8% and 10% rates in time. The reality is rates are going up and so are home prices. At some point, home buyers will have to buy, or the market may be out of reach indefinitely.
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RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia’s annexation of Crimea was only the first step in President Putin’s power grab. Undoubtedly, he plans to stir additional unrest in sections of Ukraine where Russian speaking people are in great numbers. A military response by Ukraine would give him reason to invade Ukraine to protect pro-Russians and that would have an impact on global markets, which are vulnerable to begin with.
One of the factors that turns a normal market correction of 3% to 5% into a much bigger correction (5% to 12%) is new negatives that hit the market when it is about to rebound from the 5% correction. A sharp escalation in the Russia/Ukraine situation could be one of those factors. Yesterday, the U.S. announced it was sending 600 soldiers to Poland as a sign of support.
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HOUSING STOCKS –
The group got buyers yesterday. BZH, TOLKBH and DHI especially strong.
PARTIAL LIST:
Beazer Homes (BZH) Thursday: $19.80
PulteCorp ($PHM) Thursday $18.39
Toll Brothers (TOL) Thursday $34.24
KB Homes (KBH) Thursday $16.51
DR Horton (DHI) Thursday $22.28
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THIS WEEK’s ECONOMIC REPORTS:
This is a huge week for economic reports – huge. It may still be a month early to get a read on whether the economy will surge out of its winter slump, then too we may get the clues we have been looking for.
For detailed analysis of both the U.S. and Foreign economies along with charts, go to www.mam.econoday.com. Also included is an explanation of each indicator. If you want to know when the next Employment report or any other key report will be released that info is also there under “event release date.”
MONDAY:
Pending Home Sales (10:00): Surged 3.4 pct. in Mar. vs 0.5 pct. Feb. March jump ends 9-mo. Slide. Beat estimates of minus 1.7 pct. to plus 2.0 pct.
Dallas Fed. Mfg. (10:30): April’s production Ix. jumped to 24.7 from 17.1 in March
TUESDAY:
FOMC Meeting begins
ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45): Up sharply 1.6 pct. in Apr. 26 week. Year/year now +3.1 pct.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Ix.(9:00): Up 0.8 pct. in Feb. unchanged from Jan.
Consumer Confidence (10:00): Slipped slightly in Apr. to 82.3 from 83.9 in Mar..
WEDNESDAY:
MBA Purchase Apps (7:00) Down 4.0 pct. for Apr 25 week vs. down 3.0 pct. for prior week. Apps are down 21% year/year.
ADP Employment Rpt. (8:15): Up 220,000 in Apr. vs. 209,000 in Mar. (revised).
GDP (8:30): Q1 est. is up 0.1 pct. vs. plus 2.6 pct. for Q4
Chicago PMI (9:45) Up to 63.0 in Apr. from 55.9 in Mar..
FOMC Meeting announcement (2:00):
THURSDAY:
Jobless Claims (8:30): Up 14,000 to 344,000 for Apr. 26 week.
Personal Income/Outlays (8:30): For Mar., Personal Income increased 0.5 pct. from 0.4 pct.; Personal Spending rose 0.9 pct. from 0.5 pct.
PMI Mfg. Ix. (9:45): Apr. unchanged at 55.4, New Orders unchanged at 58.9
ISM Mfg. Ix. (10:00): Mar. up to 53.7 from 53.2 Feb.; New Orders 55.1 vs. 54.5.
Construction Spending (10:00): Feb. 0.1 pct. vs. minus 0.2 in Jan..
FRIDAY:
Employment Situation (8:30): Apr. rose 288,000 vs. 203,000 in Mar., Economists had projected a rise of 218,000. Private payrolls rose 273,000 in Apr. vs 202,000 in Mar.
Factory Orders (10:00):
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RECENT POSTS:
Apr 21 DJIA 16,408 A Very Important Week for Stocks
Apr 22 DJIA 16,449 Stock Market – Coiling Spring ?
Apr 23 DJIA 16,514 Today – a Test for the Bulls
Apr 24 DJIA 16,501 Surge in Stocks – Is Economy Next ?
Apr 25 DJIA 16,501 Bears Put to Test
Apr 28 DJIA 16, 361 Pivotal Week – Economy – Stock Market
Apr 29 DJIA 16,448 Market Direction – Still a Toss Up
Apr 30, DJIA 16,535 Sell in May and Go Away ??
May 1 DJIA 16,580 Money Manager Dilemma – Plunge Now ?
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
George Brooks
“Investor’s first read – an edge before the open”
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis,LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized investment advice or as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.
