In my price velocity plot below, note that although my 14-day component has turned up, my seven and 27-day components are still declining. And while there can be a day or two delay in the turn of these indicators, more often than not, the seven-day component turns either right on the day of the bottom, or sometimes as much as six days prior.
Recognizing that I am making a positional change with less than perfect information, I am advising a move back to BEARISH for what I think is a setup for a push lower for the balance of this week and into next. The bulk of my cycles analysis points to late in the day on April 6th – with a possible spillover into the next day – for my expected cycle low. I’d like to see the S&P tag its 200-day moving average (depicted on the chart in red). Better yet would be a move to just under 2,000 before rebounding. And a good whack in the NYSE Advance / Decline Line. A push higher from a lower low early next week would support a whole host of divergences at the coming May high.
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