On Friday, Trump’s press secretary Sean Spicer resigned. What does it mean for the gold market?
You can say a lot about Trump’s administration, but one thing is certain: it does not run too smoothly – on the contrary, it sees a high rate of staff turnover. As a reminder, as early as in February, National Security Advisor Michael Flynn resigned after he misled administration about his conversations with Russians. Another famous example is James Comey. And more recently, Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, resigned on Friday after he expressed his disagreement with the selection of Anthony Scaramucci as White House communications director. He only served about half a year. Spicer’s resignation came during a turbulent period for Trump. About two weeks ago, it was revealed that the president’s eldest son met with a Russian lawyer during the campaign, presumably to obtain incriminating information about Hillary Clinton. Last week, it turned out that the Trump administration failed to convince Congress to pass the healthcare bill. The president is also reshuffling his legal team, as Marc Kasowitz, the head of Trump’s legal team representing him in the Russia investigation, was reported to step aside. There are also reports that POTUS has instructed an investigation of special counsel Robert Mueller, who, himself, is investigating the Trump administration! And yesterday, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, was questioned by Senate investigators about collusion with Russia.
All of the above creates a tumultuous period for the president, which is positive news for the gold market. The increased worries about the Trump administration’s ability to run smoothly and implement pro-growth reforms could spur safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. It could also be bullish for gold through lowering the expectations of real interest rates in the future. Surely, turbulences are nothing new for the current administration and the recent turmoil could be not enough to lift gold prices alone. However, the political uncertainty coincidences now with the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the positive sentiment towards the euro and the yellow metal. Hence, it may add some support for gold prices for a while. Stay tuned!
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Disclaimer: Please note that the aim of the above analysis is to discuss the likely long-term impact of the featured phenomenon on the price of gold and this analysis does not indicate (nor does it aim to do so) whether gold is likely to move higher or lower in the short- or medium term. In order to determine the latter, many additional factors need to be considered (i.e. sentiment, chart patterns, cycles, indicators, ratios, self-similar patterns and more) and we are taking them into account (and discussing the short- and medium-term outlook) in our trading alerts.
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