A Must Sell for Bernanke: Tapering is Not Tightening

George Brooks |

While the Street thinks it knows what Fed chief Bernanke will say when he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee beginning at 10:00 a.m. Wednesday and Thursday, it may decide to wait before making additional commitments.

Recently, Bernanke has tried to differentiate between tapering out of its bond purchases and actually tightening credit. Many on the FRB would like to taper, but Bernanke says actual tightening is nowhere near a likelihood.

If he can pull that off, the Street will be better able to welcome good economic news without fearing taper, and the bull market can continue even further.

Q2 earnings is the other driver of stock prices. It’s not only the reports, but the revisions in guidance and Q3 projections that will have impact.

If these reports beat Street estimates, the market has a chance to soar.

While the market is up 6.5% in three weeks, there is a sense of panic and pressure to load up on stocks before the market soars even more. The financial press will hype every new high in the DJIA and S&P 500 however slight.

That’s a little scary.

We have been in a News whipsaw market for two months. Any negative at this point will stop the euphoria in its tracks.

Minor support is DJIA 15,425 (S&P 500: 1,677)

Investor’s first read - an edge before the open

DJIA: 15,484.26

S&P 500: 1,682.50

Nasdaq Comp.: 3,607.49

Russell 2000: 1,043.11

Tuesday, July 16, 2013 8:28 a.m.

Apple (AAPL: $427.63)

Some selling came in Friday and Monday as AAPL tried to cross $430. Support is now $427. The big hurdle will be its July 23d, Q3 earnings report which is expected to show no growth year over year.

Facebook (FB: $26.23)

While a seller showed up at the open Friday, FB was able to reverse the

intraday trend and reinstate a positive pattern for the day. FB moved up nicely yesterday to $26.43 where sellers stepped in. Look for a slip to a smidge below $26.

ECONOMY:

While we will get some key economic reports this week, Fed chair Bernanke will be at center stage as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, in semi annual event.

MONDAY:

Retail Sales (8:30) Proj.: +0.8 pct.

Empire State Mfg. Svy (8:30) Proj.: July 0.5 pct. Vs. 7.4 pct. June

Business Inventories(10:00) Proj.: No change

TUESDAY:

CPI (8:30) Proj.: +0.4 pt. Excl food/energy +0.2 pct.

Industrial Production (9:15) Proj.:+0.2 pct.

Housing Market Ix. (10:00) Proj.: 52.0 unchanged

WEDNESDAY:

Housing Starts (8:30) Proj.: June 0.951 million units vs. May 0.914 million units

*****BERNANKE before House Financial Services Committee (10:00)

THURSDAY:

Jobless Claims (8:30) Proj.: June 13 344,000 vs. June 6 360,000

Philly Fed Mfg. Svy. (10:00) Proj.: 9.0 vs. 12.5 in June

Leading Economic Indicators (10:00) Proj.: +0.3 pct.

George Brooks

Investor’s first read - an edge before the open

sensible sleuth@gmail.com

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